649
FXAK67 PAJK 142341
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
341 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
STARTING THIS EVENING, A
STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST & STARTS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL BRING A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL & WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL & WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL START LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS
NEARER TO THE OUTER COAST & THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG
& AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PUSH. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR LAND AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST & FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
PUSH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 - 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES: TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED.
-A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER BEHIND IT.
-A STORM FORCE LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES ACROSS THE OUTER GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
WINDS AND RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
-ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
-A GALE FORCE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE, ENTERS
THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
-MORE SYSTEMS ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS: A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW NO
SIGN OF ABATING ANYTIME SOON, AS A BROAD AREA OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GULF (ROSSBY WAVE) SEES CONTINUED SYSTEMS SWEEPING INTO
THE PANHANDLE. A BAND OF RAIN MEANDERING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE MORE INLAND AREAS FURTHER
NORTH. THIS BREAK MAY BE THE ONLY 'SUBSTANTIAL' BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE POSITIONING OF A FOLLOW
UP LOW WHICH WILL UP AND MOVING NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL REACH STORM FORCE, AND SO STRENGTHENED WINDS TO
STORM FORCE IN SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. ALONGSIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST AND POTENTIALLY TO SOME
MORE PRESSURE-GRADIENT IMPACTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW, ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT CHANCES OF
RAIN REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER FRONT
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
PAST THIS POINT, A STRONGER SYSTEM IS IN STORE MOVING IN THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY AND THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. PINNING
DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A CHALLENGE, GIVEN
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND A POTENTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE. DO
HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. QPF TOTALS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES, THOUGH PRECISE AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN GIVEN THE ARRAY OF SMALLER DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, INDICATIVE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORE SYSTEMS AHEAD,
ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS MURKY
AT THIS STAGE AS OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FALLS APART.
AVIATION
AFTER THE MORNING FOG FADED AWAY, VFR RETURNED TO SE AK
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FELT LIKE A CALM BEFORE THE NEXT STORM, OR
STORMS.
A FORECASTED STORM FORCE FRONT IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WOULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, STRONG
WINDS, AND LLWS.
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. BUT AROUND 10 TO 12Z, MVFR, WITH TIMES
OF IFR, CONDITIONS WILL START TO SHOW UP ALONG THE COAST AND
TRACK INLAND, REACHING NORTHERN LYNN CANAL BY AROUND 17 TO 19Z. AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON, IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE DUE TO THE CIG HEIGHTS
AS VIS LOOKS TO DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS. DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER
RAIN, VIS COULD DROP TO IFR, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING VIS TO LOWER
TO MVFR WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR WITH TIMES OF IFR.
THE OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE LLWS
WILL COME FROM THE FRONT, THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF LLWS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME, IT'S LOOKING LIKE WESTERN PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND AND WESTERN BARANOF ISLAND HAVE THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THIS EARLY LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 03 TO 04Z. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES, THE AREA OF POTENTIAL LLWS WILL SPREAD INLAND,
GIVING ALL AREAS FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LLWS BY 09 TO 12Z. LLWS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TO 20Z MONDAY.
BUT THIS IS NOT THE END OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER STORY. BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD, LOW FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE
LLWS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: A STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS PUSHING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST, EXPECT HIGH END GALES
TO LOW END STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN NEAR CAPE
EDGECUMBE & CAPE SUCKLING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES & MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO PEAK OUT AT AROUND 21 TO 29 FT AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK, A LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT REENTERS THE EASTERN GULF & PUSHES
NORTHWARD, BRINGING MORE STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS & SEAS UP
TO AROUND 16 FT TO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FOR LATE TUESDAY WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS: AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, EXPECT BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(23 TO < 33
KT) & UP TO LOW END GALE FORCE(35 TO < 40 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKAN INNER CHANNELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN AROUND 4 AND 8 FT ARE
LIKELY WITH APPRECIABLY HIGHER VALUES NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. UP TO
AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS & UP TO AROUND 5 FT SEAS WITH
HIGHER VALUES NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW
ALONG THE RETROGRADING FRONT, AS WELL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ323.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ662>664-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ034-036-641>644-651-652-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>033-035-053.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...JLC
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