837
FXAK67 PAJK 150557 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
957 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...STARTING THIS EVENING, A
STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST & STARTS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL BRING A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL & WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL & WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL START LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS
NEARER TO THE OUTER COAST & THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG
& AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PUSH. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR LAND AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST & FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
PUSH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 - 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM...KEY MESSAGES: TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED.
-A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER BEHIND IT.
-A STORM FORCE LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES ACROSS THE OUTER GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
WINDS AND RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
-ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
-A GALE FORCE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE, ENTERS
THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
-MORE SYSTEMS ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS: A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW NO
SIGN OF ABATING ANYTIME SOON, AS A BROAD AREA OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GULF (ROSSBY WAVE) SEES CONTINUED SYSTEMS SWEEPING INTO
THE PANHANDLE. A BAND OF RAIN MEANDERING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE MORE INLAND AREAS FURTHER
NORTH. THIS BREAK MAY BE THE ONLY 'SUBSTANTIAL' BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE POSITIONING OF A FOLLOW
UP LOW WHICH WILL UP AND MOVING NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL REACH STORM FORCE, AND SO STRENGTHENED WINDS TO
STORM FORCE IN SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. ALONGSIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST AND POTENTIALLY TO SOME
MORE PRESSURE-GRADIENT IMPACTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW, ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT CHANCES OF
RAIN REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER FRONT
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
PAST THIS POINT, A STRONGER SYSTEM IS IN STORE MOVING IN THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY AND THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. PINNING
DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A CHALLENGE, GIVEN
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND A POTENTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE. DO
HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. QPF TOTALS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES, THOUGH PRECISE AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN GIVEN THE ARRAY OF SMALLER DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, INDICATIVE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORE SYSTEMS AHEAD,
ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS MURKY
AT THIS STAGE AS OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FALLS APART.
AVIATION...INCOMING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE VFR WITH LOWER WINDS, BUT AS RAINFALL
START TO MOVE IN EXPECT VIS AND ESPECIALLY CEILINGS TO DROP TO
MVFR (WITH SOME IFR AT TIMES) STARTING ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS
EARLY AS 10 TO 12Z WITH RAINFALL TRACKING INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, VIS AND CEILINGS COULD DROP RIGHT BACK
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST (SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS EARLY
AS MONDAY EVENING AND CENTRAL AND NORTH AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT) AS A NEW WAVE ALONG THE FRONT COMES NORTHWARD AND BRINGS
THE FRONTAL RAIN BACK WEST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SE
15 TO 30 KT FOR MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE EVEN WORSE WITH 40 TO 55 KT
SE WINDS JUST 2000 TO 4000 FT ASL AT THE SAME TIME. SO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM SPEED
SHEAR. HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST CHANCES OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE FOR
THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TURBULENCE WILL ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD AS THE HIGHER WINDS INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND SE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT MAY START TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT COMES BACK WEST. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THE
SECOND TIME AROUND THOUGH, BUT SOME LOWER INTENSITY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: A STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS PUSHING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST, EXPECT HIGH END GALES
TO LOW END STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN NEAR CAPE
EDGECUMBE & CAPE SUCKLING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES & MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO PEAK OUT AT AROUND 21 TO 29 FT AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK, A LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT REENTERS THE EASTERN GULF & PUSHES
NORTHWARD, BRINGING MORE STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS & SEAS UP
TO AROUND 16 FT TO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FOR LATE TUESDAY WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS: AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, EXPECT BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(23 TO < 33
KT) & UP TO LOW END GALE FORCE(35 TO < 40 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKAN INNER CHANNELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN AROUND 4 AND 8 FT ARE
LIKELY WITH APPRECIABLY HIGHER VALUES NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. UP TO
AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS & UP TO AROUND 5 FT SEAS WITH
HIGHER VALUES NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW
ALONG THE RETROGRADING FRONT, AS WELL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ323.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ662>664-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ034-036-641>644-651-652-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>033-035-053.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...JLC
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