227
FXAK67 PAJK 151453
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
653 AM AKDT MON SEP 15 2025
SHORT TERM
THE STRONG SYSTEM IN THE GULF HAS REACHED THE OUTER
COAST OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, WITH MAJOR IMPACTS PEAKING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINING THE HIGH END GALE TO LOW
STORM FORCE EASTERN GULF WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WERE
BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE INITIAL FORECAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND BUOY OBS START TO COME IN. STILL
THINKING MAJORITY HIGH END GALES AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 50KTS AT THEIR
PEAK. GULF WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR GALES IN THE CENTRAL GULF,
OFFSHORE OF CAPE SUCKLING, AND FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF TUESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE ARE PEAKING AT
AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY UNTIL THE NEXT SOUTHERLY PUSH TOMORROW. WINDS WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSE AFTER ARE LOOKING TO BE AS STRONG IF NOT
STRONGER AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
MARINERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME NAVIGATING THE CHANNELS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS HIGH WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UNSHELTERED AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL FEEL THE GREATEST IMPACTS. HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT IN THE GULF WILL INCREASE CHANNEL ENTRANCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
UPWARDS OF 15 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING.
ACCOMPANYING THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES
ON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT YAKUTAT AND AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE GREATEST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
ANTICIPATED. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AROUND HALF AN
INCH IN 24 HOURS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE EVENLY
DISTRIBUTED PRECIP BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ON TUESDAY,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOR HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES: TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED.
-A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
ON TUESDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER BEHIND IT.
-A STORM FORCE LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES ACROSS THE OUTER GULF
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
-ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
-A GALE FORCE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE,
ENTERS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
-MORE SYSTEMS ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS: A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW NO
SIGN OF ABATING ANYTIME SOON, AS A BROAD AREA OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF (ROSSBY WAVE) SEES CONTINUED SYSTEMS
SWEEPING INTO THE PANHANDLE. A BAND OF RAIN MEANDERING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE MORE
INLAND AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THIS BREAK MAY BE THE ONLY
'SUBSTANTIAL' BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE POSITIONING OF A
FOLLOW UP LOW WHICH WILL UP AND MOVING NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL REACH STORM FORCE, AND SO STRENGTHENED
WINDS TO STORM FORCE IN SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. ALONGSIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST AND POTENTIALLY
TO SOME MORE PRESSURE-GRADIENT IMPACTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE INNER
CHANNELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW, ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT CHANCES OF
RAIN REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH IT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION, AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
PAST THIS POINT, A STRONGER SYSTEM IS IN STORE MOVING IN THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY AND THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A CHALLENGE,
GIVEN MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND A POTENTIAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE. DO HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. QPF TOTALS BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES, THOUGH PRECISE
AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN THE ARRAY OF SMALLER
DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INDICATIVE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORE SYSTEMS
AHEAD, ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS
REMAINS MURKY AT THIS STAGE AS OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FALLS APART.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
PREDOMINATE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EARLY
MORNING AS A STRONG FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO
THE SEAK COASTLINE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS AOB 2500FT WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AS FRONT PUSHES
INLAND WITH HEAVIER PRECIP, LLWS, AND ELEVATED WINDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW- END VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON POST-
FRONT WITH CIGS AOB 4000FT, QUICKLY DETERIORATING AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE S PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
SITKA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15KTS OR LESS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE STOUT
SOUTHEASTERLY LLWS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LLWS UP TO 30KTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000FT, WITH STRONGEST LLWS
AROUND 40KTS NEAR KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK. BRIEF BREAK IN LLWS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY 03Z TO 06Z TUESDAY,
SENDING ANOTHER WAVE OF LLWS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF
SITES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: DANGEROUS AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS IMPACTING THE
GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A HIGH END GALE FORCE FRONT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS HAS REACHED THE OUTER COAST OF
THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED IN THE OUTER GULF
WATERS, OFF THE COAST OF CAPE SUCKLING, COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND,
AND IN DIXON ENTRANCE GOING INTO CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THE DAY
AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW JUMPS INTO THE GULF. STORM FORCE GUSTS UP TO
52 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL OUT OF CROSS SOUND THROUGH THE
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 30 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE FRONT DIMINISHES, BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BACK UP TO 20 TO
28 FT FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW ENTERS THE GULF. STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSIDE WATERS: INNER CHANNELS WILL BE EXPERIENCING IMPACTFUL
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT PUSHING
OVER THE PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS BRINGING STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) TO MOST OF THE INSIDE WATERS.
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT WILL SEE GALES (34 TO 40 KTS) COMING
FROM DIXON ENTRANCE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
DIMINISH, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE NEXT LOW JUMPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. CHANNEL ENTRANCES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 16 FT GOING
INTO SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND 12 FT GOING INTO CLARENCE AND
SITKA SOUND AND COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THE REST OF THE
CHANNELS WILL SEE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AT
THE PEAK OF THE SYSTEM, MAY BE HIGHER WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONGEST
WINDS. LYNN CANAL IS THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THIS, STAYING
AROUND MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZES (11 TO 21 KTS) UNTIL
TURNING NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MORE CALM PERIOD BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT. ONCE THAT FRONT REACHES THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
EVENING, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TURNING N/S WILL INCREASE
CHANNEL WINDS TO STRONG BREEZES WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS.
HYDROLOGY
ACTIVE PATTERN KICKS OFF AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS A STRONG FRONT PUSHES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BEING PULLED BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 6,000 FT, ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MELT AROUND
GLACIAL SYSTEMS. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL MELTING,
IN COMBINATION WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL,
RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ322.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ324.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ662>664-671-672. GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ021-022-031>035-053.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
HYDROLOGY...NM
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