414
FXAK67 PAJK 160703 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1103 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM.../INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/
A STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL IMPACTING THE EASTERN GULF & PANHANDLE,
WHICH IS BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS & HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH HAS
BEEN SET UP & TRAINING OVER KETCHIKAN ALL DAY, BRINGING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA, WHICH IS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
A STRONG WIND IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ANNETTE ISLAND AREA THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT NEAR THAT AREA. WIDESPREAD FLOODING HAS BEEN & IS STILL
OCCURRING FOR THE KETCHIKAN AREA, WHICH HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS & PUBLIC REPORTS. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION & THE FLOOD
WARNING STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS & UP-TO- DATE INFORMATION. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BUCKLE WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, IT WILL
SPEED UP & SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ONCE AGAIN, & SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY, FOR THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY AREA IN JUNEAU, SUICIDE BASIN IS RELEASING FOR
THE 2ND TIME THIS SEASON INTO MENDENHALL LAKE & RIVER. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW & THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR
MORE INFORMATION WITH REGARDS TO THE STATUS & IMPACTS & GENERALLY
MORE UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK/
ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT &
QUICKLY PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IT
WILL BRING HIGH END GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE EASTERN
GULF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN IT & MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. IT WILL ALSO BRING MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE PANHANDLE. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, THE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PROLONGED LIKE IT HAS BEEN TODAY FOR THE KETCHIKAN
AREA. IT WILL ALSO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE &
OUTER COAST & STRONG WINDS TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE
ALONG WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PUSHES
NORTHWARD & NEARS THE COAST AT DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER COAST & ANNETTE
ISLAND FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
SEE THE UPDATES TO THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT & HIGH WIND
WATCHES FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AVIATION
AVIATION DESK HAS BEEN BUSY TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE (BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS), AS WELL AS PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN PLACE FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND
SHEAR SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND, HOWEVER
HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD START TAPERING
OFF FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF A SITKA TO PETERSBURG LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
WILL ENSUE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, BEFORE A STRONG STORM FORCE LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT STRONG LLWS, RAIN, MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS, WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
EXPECTING A GALE FORCE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS JUST A WARM-UP FOR A MUCH MORE INTENSE
EVENT TUESDAY EVENING…. ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW WILL LIFT ALONG
OUR COAST TUESDAY EVENING, PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IS
IT NOT A QUESTION OF IF WE WILL SEE STORM FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS, BUT HOW LONG WILL WE SEE THESE WINDS. ANTICIPATE SE WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE COAST DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING, MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOLKS OPERATING FROM CROSS SOUND SOUTH WILL
SEE THESE WINDS, WITH SEAS REACHING 25FT NEAR CAPE EDGECUMBE,
INCREASING TO NEAR 33FT NEAR YAKUTAT LATER THAT MORNING.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS THIS, WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED
WITH A LARGER SPREAD OF SUDDEN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH SOME INNER CHANNELS SEEING STRONG GALES, DEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS FROM THE TRACK
OF THE LOW, WITH MANY MODEL PLAYERS KEEPING THE LOW FURTHER WEST;
HOWEVER, MANY HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BRINGING THE LOW CLOSER
TO OUR COAST, WITH THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT CORRELATING TO
A SUDDEN SURGE OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS OF WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME SELECT AREAS SEEING 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS.
STAY TUNED TO OUR FORECAST AND CHECK NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FREQUENTLY.
HYDROLOGY
A LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS SET UP A & HAS BEEN
TRAINING OVER KETCHIKAN FOR MOST OF THE DAY, DUMPING VERY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THAT AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 0.81 INCHES PER
HOUR THIS AFTERNOON, SO FAR. THIS HAS GIVEN UP TO 10 YEAR RETURN
INTERVALS FOR 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS. TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS
ALSO PLAYED A PART. THE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN & PUSH
NORTHWARD, CAUSING THE RAIN TO LIGHTEN, TONIGHT. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. OFFICIALS & THE PUBLIC HAVE
REPORTED FLOODING IN THE CITY OF KETCHIKAN. REFER TO THE
LATEST UPDATE TO THE FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING IMPACTS.
ALSO, AN ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNING IS OUT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
AREAS NEAR MENDENHALL LAKE & RIVER FOR ANOTHER GLACIER DAM
RELEASE ON SUICIDE BASIN. MENDENHALL LAKE GAUGE LEVELS, WATER
TEMPERATURES, AND WATER LEVEL WITHIN THE BASIN INDICATE THAT THE
BASIN CONTINUES ITS RELEASE OF WATER INTO MENDENHALL LAKE AND
RIVER. THE FORECAST TIMING FOR WHEN THE LAKE WILL CREST HAS BEEN
MOVED UP TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM. THE CREST
HEIGHT HAS REMAINED THE SAME BETWEEN 11 AND 12 FT. REFER TO THE
LATEST UPDATE TO THE FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING IMPACTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ317.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ321>323-327.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ327.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ328-332.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-652-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-033>036-053-641-651.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...JLC
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