591
FXAK67 PAJK 171749
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
949 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE COAST
MOUNTAINS, WITH A BULK OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHIFTING TOWARDS
ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD. HIGH WIND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND METLAKATLA AS THE LOW HAS MOVED
SUFFICIENTLY FAR NORTH. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
THE STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW, IT APPEARS THAT A JUMP
INLAND WILL BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WITH THIS TRACK FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND INLAND, THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
MORE OF THE INNER CHANNELS AS THERE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR A
SURGE OF WIND BEHIND THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
YAKUTAT WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE LESS SIGNIFICANT WINDS DUE TO THE
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE MIXING FROM THE WINDS,
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE STARTING OUT RATHER WARM DUE TO THE
MIXING INHIBITING COOLING. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH LITTLE TO NO BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING TO BE IMPACTFUL DUE TO THE LONGER
DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EFIS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASING TREND OF CONFIDENCE OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION AS THE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH, ALONG WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 0 OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING FORWARD DUE TO
INDICATIONS OF IT BEING A POTENTIAL AR EVENT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. GEFS AND EC AR GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE AR
EVENT THAT WILL BE LONG DURATION WITH A LOWER PEAK IN IVT. MODELS
STILL ARE SHOWING A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND ARE NOT FULLY ALIGNED ON WHERE THE
HIGHER IVT VALUES WILL IMPACT, WITH THE GEFS BRINGING IT MORE
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE THE EC HAS IT
APPROACHING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
OVERALL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
24 HOURS THURSDAY, AND AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. AS IT MOVES TO IMPACT THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, THE 24 HOUR TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES AS WELL. THE HIGHEST
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE (JUNEAU, SITKA, AND PETERSBURG)
HAVING A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
WHEN USING THE NBM 5.0 AND 4.3 PROBABILITIES. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY AROUND KETCHIKAN, MAY BE SOMEWHERE TO
WATCH CLOSELY AS GUIDANCE BEGINS TO NARROW DOWN ON PRECIPITATION
VALUES FOR THIS TIME FRAME, AS NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 60% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES, AND A 15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN 24
HOURS. THE MOST 24 HOUR ACCUMULATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 INCHES,
THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE EXPECTED IF THE IVT VALUES ARE
DIRECTED MORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON THE 20TH.
WINDS IN THESE UPCOMING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MOST HIGH END
GALES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INCREASED WINDS TO BE ALONG THE
OUTER GULF COASTLINE, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
OVERALL, THE STORM FORCE LOW IS RELATIVELY ON TRACK,
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN TIMING. NATURALLY WITH STORM FORCE
LOWS, THE MAIN IMPACT IS STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR DUE TO TERRAIN, BUT LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE AND STRONG
SURFACE WINDS MEAN THAT CIGS AND VIS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE TYPES
OF SYSTEMS, PUSHED BACK ARRIVAL TIME FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY
SLIGHTLY FOR THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL EXPECTING STOUT LAND
WINDS ACROSS MAINLY AREAS FROM KAKE NORTHWARD NOW, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 52 KNOTS OVER TAF SITES. KEPT LLWS VALUES OF AROUND 40-60 KTS
SHIFTING FROM SE TO SW AROUND 1000-2000 FT, WITH MULTIPLE PIREPS
INDICATING ITS OCCURRENCE. TONED DOWN SITKA LLWS FROM RADAR
OBSERVATIONS, BUT EXPECTING SPEEDS TO PICK UP ONCE MORE WITH
STRONGER SWERLIES. YAKUTAT IS THE LARGEST CHANGE, AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE TAF SITE. AS SUCH, EXPECTING TO
SEE LIGHTER WINDS FOR LONGER WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER CIGS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE STORM FORCE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AREAS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO REPORT GALES TO
STORM FORCE WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE WEAKER. SEAS CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED FOR AREAS
EXPERIENCING GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS. CAPE EDGECUMBE IS
REPORTING 15 FT SEAS WHILE THE DIXON ENTRANCE BUOY IS STILL
REPORTING AROUND 20 FT WAVES WITH A 11 SECOND PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SEAS ARE GOING
TO REMAIN ELEVATED.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE A
TALE OF TWO AREAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS. BEHIND AND
ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH GALES TO STRONG GALES BEING REPORTED WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCAL REPORTS OF STORM FORCE
WINDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG CAPE DECISION AND CONSTRICTED PARTS OF
CHATHAM. GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BEFORE STARTING DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH THE JUMP ACROSS THE COAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GALES TO SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
THE INNER CHANNELS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING, WITH HIGHEST RATES BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 INCHES AN
HOUR. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BRING THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS TO AREAS NORTH OF SITKA,
WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. YAKUTAT WILL SEE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES
TOTAL IN 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HOWEVER, WILL ONLY SEE
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH THIS RAIN, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SEE RISES DUE TO THE
RAINFALL.
THE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY ONWARDS BRINGING AN
EXPECTED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS AS A POTENTIAL
MODERATE AR MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS LARGELY APPEARS TO BE A
LONGER DURATION, LOWER INTENSITY EVENT LASTING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CHANCES OF GETTING ABOVE 3 INCHES IN
24 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RATES LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.35 INCHES
EVERY 3 HOURS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318-319-
322-323-327.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ320-321-
325.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ324.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-641>644-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-651-652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...SF
HYDROLOGY...NM
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