249
FXAK67 PAJK 180005
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / OLD LOW JUMPING INLAND TO
YUKON TERRITORY, AND QUICK BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
AIDING THE BURST OF WINDS NORTHWARDS FROM THE JUNEAU AREA TO
HAINES AND SKAGWAY. RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD. THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS DOWN TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL SPREAD AN
AREA OF RAIN BACK IN OVERNIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
LOOKING TO BE IMPACTFUL DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. EFIS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING TREND OF
CONFIDENCE OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING FORWARD DUE TO
INDICATIONS OF IT BEING A POTENTIAL AR EVENT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. GEFS AND EC AR GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE AR
EVENT THAT WILL BE LONG DURATION WITH A LOWER PEAK IN IVT. MODELS
STILL ARE SHOWING A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND ARE NOT FULLY ALIGNED ON WHERE THE
HIGHER IVT VALUES WILL IMPACT, WITH THE GEFS BRINGING IT MORE
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE THE EC HAS IT
APPROACHING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
OVERALL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 24
HOURS THURSDAY, AND AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. AS
IT MOVES TO IMPACT THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
THE 24 HOUR TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES AS WELL. THE HIGHEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
(JUNEAU, SITKA, AND PETERSBURG) HAVING A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WHEN USING THE NBM 5.0 AND 4.3
PROBABILITIES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY AROUND
KETCHIKAN, MAY BE SOMEWHERE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
NARROW DOWN ON PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THIS TIME FRAME, AS NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, A
30 TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES, AND A 15% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. THE MOST 24 HOUR ACCUMULATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2.5
AND 3 INCHES, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE EXPECTED IF THE IVT
VALUES ARE DIRECTED MORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON THE 20TH.
WINDS IN THESE UPCOMING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MOST HIGH END
GALES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INCREASED WINDS TO BE ALONG THE
OUTER GULF COASTLINE, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEGINNING TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF.
AVIATION
REMNANTS OF A STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO
35-50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND
JUNEAU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR AND
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW. TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE SOME
SCATTERED VFR POCKETS MAY EMERGE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY
FROM SITKA NORTHWARDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOB 2500 FT. LLWS
REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING
STRONG SURFACE WINDS, SUCH AS JUNEAU AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE...OUTSIDE WATERS (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS)
LOW FROM
EARLIER WEDNESDAY JUMPING INLAND EAST OF YAKUTAT, ANOTHER FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND THIS WILL PUSH BAND OF GALE
TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INSIDE WATERS (INNER CHANNELS)...WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GALES
TO STRONG GALES BEING REPORTED WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCAL REPORTS OF STORM FORCE WINDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG
LYNN CANAL. WIND DECREASING TO 20 - 25 KT TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON THE WET TRACK PRIMARILY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. A FLOOD WATCH 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND WILL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
AS NEEDED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318-319.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ320>322-324-325.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
AKZ326-328>332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-643-663-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-032>036-053-641-642-644-651-652-
661-662-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...CONTINO/BEZENEK
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...BEZENEK
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