276
FXAK67 PAJK 021423
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
623 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2025
SHORT TERM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COOK INLET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE THIS FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS FURTHER ENHANCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN GULF AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. YAKUTAT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.
WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT FROM THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, TERMINATION DUST LINES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN
INCHING CLOSER TO SEA LEVEL AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, UPPER PARTS OF THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING HEAVIER RATES, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
LIKELIEST TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN
AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ERODE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE.
ASIDE FROM THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY MENTIONED ABOVE, COMMUNITIES BELOW
3000 FT AND AT SEA LEVEL CAN EXPECT TO JUST SEE COLD RAIN. FOR
WHAT TO EXPECT ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY BEGINS JUST AS A QUICK MOVING FRONT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST, WITH COPIOUS RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT. WAA
FROM 850-500 MB WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE, WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS REACHING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AROUND 6 HOURS POST FRONT, OR FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL DEFINITELY RESULT IN REDUCED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR WINDS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, KEPT THE SOUTHERLY
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FRONT MOSTLY WESTERLY TO 10
KNOTS AT A MAXIMUM, HOWEVER, MANY AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS.
THE NORTHERN END OF THE PANHANDLE HAVE A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
(60% CHANCE) TO SEE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH EXCEED 15 KNOTS FOR
LONGER, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY LEESIDE TROUGHING FROM WESTERLY WIND
ALOFT MOVING OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND TROUGHING IN THE
INTERIOR OF CANADA. CHANCES DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN SUNDAY.
SUNDAY ENTERS THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS THE HIGHEST SPREAD REGARDING HOW FAST A NEW UPPER
TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE CURRENTLY SET RIDGE DURING THIS TIME
RANGE. THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ACTUALLY IN REGARDS TO A
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA, WHICH WILL HAVE DOWNSTREAM
IMPLICATIONS FOR BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
KEEP A MORE PROGRESSIVE FORECAST, BRINGING MORE RAIN FASTER INTO
THE PANHANDLE PROPER, WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM DEEPENING THE TROUGH,
STRENGTHENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE, AND KEEPING RAIN OVER YAKUTAT
LONGER. THEREFORE, THERE ARE WIDE GATES OVER YAKUTAT FOR HOW MUCH
RAIN TO EXPECT, WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD (50%) BETWEEN 1.5 AND
3.5 INCHES IN 48 HOURS, BUT LOWER CHANCES (LESS THAN 15%) OF
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN THE SAME DURATION.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY/
SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE LIKE PAPG, PAWG, & PAKW ARE EXPERIENCING SOME
RADIATION FG, REDUCING THEM INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY, THIS MORNING,
AS THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. IT
SHOULD THIN-OUT BEFORE LATE MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
CURRENTLY BEGUN ITS PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE. PAYA, IN THE NE GULF
COAST AREA IS ALREADY SEEING RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESSIVELY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL
GET RATHER GUSTY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY LLWS MAGNITUDES OF UP TO AROUND 35 KT CENTERED UP AT
AROUND 2 KFT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REGION.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO A SW
DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE BREAKS DOWN AND A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE S AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES, WITH WINDS OF 25
KT TO 30 KT ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS, AND GALES (35 KT) FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING
11-15 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER, AND
7-9 FEET FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER. SWELL IS CURRENTLY OF
THE S TO SE, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE SWITCHING TO SW.
INSIDE: WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE
FLIPPED OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
CHANNELS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS
OF 5AM, WINDS IN N LYNN CANAL NEAR ELDRED ROCK HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 20 KT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 KT,
REACHING 20 - 30 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 3-4 FEET, AND THURSDAY NIGHT UP TO
4 TO 6 FT, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AT OCEAN ENTRANCES AND IN AREAS
WITH LOCAL TIDAL CURRENTS AND INFLUENCES (LIKE POINT COUVERDEN).
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...STJ
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