145
FXAK67 PAJK 021918 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1118 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2025
18Z AVIATION AND MID MORNING UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST TO BRING MORE IN LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTENDED ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH RAIN ONGOING AT YAKUTAT AND RAIN JUST STARTING IN
GUSTAVUS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT, WITH
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES EXPECTED FOR YAKUTAT,
DECREASING AS YOU MOVE EASTWARD TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR JUNEAU
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, INTERMITTENT
FOG AND LOWERED MARINE LAYER CONTINUES, WITH WORST CONDITIONS
AROUND WRANGELL THIS MID- MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE AND CONTINUE AS THE FRONT TRACKS INLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COOK INLET AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE THIS FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS FURTHER ENHANCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. YAKUTAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WITH OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD,
TERMINATION DUST LINES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN INCHING CLOSER TO SEA
LEVEL AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, UPPER PARTS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS
COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING HEAVIER
RATES, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE LIKELIEST TIMING FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
ERODE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE. ASIDE FROM THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY MENTIONED ABOVE, COMMUNITIES BELOW 3000 FT AND AT SEA
LEVEL CAN EXPECT TO JUST SEE COLD RAIN. FOR WHAT TO EXPECT ON THE
BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A RETURN TO FORM FOR SE AK
- WHICH IS TO SAY A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE TRACK OF
ITS PARENT LOW, WHICH DIVES NW OUT OF THE INTERIOR, WOULD DURING
WINTER NORMALLY HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF A SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY EARLY OCTOBER, ANTICIPATE IT BE PRIMARILY
A RAIN EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
DOWN TO 3,500-4,500FT WILL OPEN UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
TERMINATION DUST LINE TO LIKELY CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE
MOUNTAINSIDE. THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING DOWN TO WHITE PASS IS
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THIS AREA ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EVERYWHERE BELOW 3,000FT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN. HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ACROSS THE GULF, THOUGH THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE COULD
RESULT IN SOME MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, BRINGING WITH IT SOME
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. LONG TERM GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARDS A NEAR NORMAL TREND FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ALTHOUGH PLACES TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
WHILE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
2 DIFFERENT AVIATION REGIMES THIS MID MORNING AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE GULF, WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR TO
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, IN CONTRAST
TO IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM LOWERED MARINE LAYER AND
INTERMITTENT FG ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR WITH CIGS AOB 3000FT FROM W TO E
THROUGH 00Z AS FRONT EXTENDS INLAND. FOR THE S PANHANDLE, CURRENT
IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO FG AND MARINE LAYER, WILL
IMPROVE TO BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WITH CIGS AOB 5000FT THROUGH 20Z,
DETERIORATING BACK DOWN TO MVFR WITH CIGS AOB 3000FT BY 06Z.
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED PASSING FRONT, WITH STRONGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30KTS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE TAF SITES,
ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD, WITH STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED AT SKAGWAY THROUGH THE EVENING.
LLWS WILL SHIFT FROM W TO E ALONG WITH THE FRONT, ONGOING AT
YAKUTAT AS OF 18Z, REACHING SITKA BY 00Z, PUSHING INLAND ACROSS
INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT LLWS
AT THIS TIME, AROUND 20 TO 30KTS SW-LY SHIFTING SE-LY. LLWS AND
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E AROUND 12 TO
18Z AS FRONT EXITS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO A SW
DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE BREAKS DOWN AND A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE S AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES, WITH WINDS OF 25
KT TO 30 KT ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS, AND GALES (35 KT) FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING
11-15 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER, AND
7-9 FEET FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER. SWELL IS CURRENTLY OF
THE S TO SE, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE SWITCHING TO SW.
INSIDE: WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE
FLIPPED OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
CHANNELS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS
OF 5AM, WINDS IN N LYNN CANAL NEAR ELDRED ROCK HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 20 KT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 KT,
REACHING 20 - 30 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 3-4 FEET, AND THURSDAY NIGHT UP TO
4 TO 6 FT, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AT OCEAN ENTRANCES AND IN AREAS
WITH LOCAL TIDAL CURRENTS AND INFLUENCES (LIKE POINT COUVERDEN).
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ318.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ327.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-
652-661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page