569
FXAK67 PAJK 030608
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1008 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2025
.06Z AVIATION AND EVENING UPDATE..
A FEW UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHED INTO THE PANHANDLE. FIRST, WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT. LAND
AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST UP TO
40 MPH. THEN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE CONTINUING TO SEE
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 22 TO 27 KTS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WINDS ARE LOCATED NEAR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL INTO THE SKAGWAY AREA,
AS THE SOUTH TO NORTH FACING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS REMAINED
STRONG. FOR PRECIPITATION, YAKUTAT HAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN RATES
THIS EVENING WITH 0.3 TO 0.35 INCH PER HOUR RATES. THESE FIRST
STARTED THIS EVENING AROUND 5 PM AND HAVE LASTED FOR ABOUT 4
HOURS NOW. THESE RATES, IN YAKUTAT, WILL DRASTICALLY DECREASE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE TIMES
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE RAIN RATES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO GREATLY DIMINISH
BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM
RAIN AND WIND ARE THE STORY OF THE DAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THURSDAY, AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO SE AK. ELEVATED AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING FROM NW TO SE AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING,
AND THE WIND AND RAIN LOOK SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE DEPARTING ON FRIDAY, LEAVING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANTICIPATE THAT MORE INTERIOR AREAS LIKE
JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND WRANGELL, WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY SEES A BREAK FOR THE PANHANDLE IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTER WINDS FROM A RELAXED GRADIENT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION BEING LYNN CANAL, WHICH, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY LEESIDE
TROUGHING FROM WESTERLY WIND ALOFT MOVING OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS
AND TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA, CAN SEE WINDS UP TO A
MODERATE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY HAS SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
COMING INTO SOME ALIGNMENT REGARDING TIMING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
FOR YAKUTAT. CLUSTER ANALYSIS, MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND THE EPS AND
GEPS WITH SOME MINOR INFLUENCE BY THE GEFS, HAS YIELDED A SOLUTION
LEANING WETTER FOR YAKUTAT, WITH MORE UNCERTAIN RAIN FOR THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE. IN AROUND A 48 HOUR PERIOD, CURRENTLY EXPECTING
2.5 - 4.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE TO EXCEED 5
INCHES IN THE SAME DURATION. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THIS POINT, WITH SOME INDICATING THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND OTHERS KEEPING IT NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.
ULTIMATELY, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO COME TO AN END FOR A SHORT BREAK BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT NOTE ABOUT SNOW BECAUSE IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR: NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE HAINES OR KLONDIKE HIGHWAY DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE UPCOMING RAIN MAKER FOR YAKUTAT LOOKS TO BRING
IN HEFTY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS
WELL ABOVE 5000 FT.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
LOWERING THIS EVENING AROUND THE AREA DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO LOW-END
VFR TO MVFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS AND THE OCCASIONAL LOWERED VIS. FOR
THE S PANHANDLE, IT'S BEEN VFR THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AOB 5000FT,
BUT AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, LOW-END VFR TO MVFR
IS LIKELY. BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SE AK WILL SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING INCREASING THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING FRONT, WITH STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35KTS NEAR SKAGWAY. LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE OVERNIGHT, WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
OR WILL INCREASE, DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES
FARTHER AWAY, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE.
LLWS WILL SHIFT FROM W TO E ALONG WITH THE FRONT, PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT
LLWS AT THIS TIME, AROUND 20 TO 30KTS SW-LY SHIFTING SE-LY. LLWS AND
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E AROUND 12 TO 18Z
AS FRONT EXITS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS OF 20 KT TO 30 KT
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS, AND GALES (35 KT) FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING 11-15 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER, AND 7 TO 9 FEET
FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER. THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WINDS
DIMINISH TO 15 - 20 KT OUT OF THE W, AND WAVEHEIGHTS BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 6 TO 8 FEET. SWELL IS CURRENTLY OF
THE SW.
INSIDE: WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE
BUILDING TO 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT,
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AT OCEAN ENTRANCES AND IN AREAS WITH LOCAL
TIDAL CURRENTS AND INFLUENCES (LIKE POINT COUVERDEN). WINDS
SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON FRIDAY, WITH WAVEHEIGHTS SUBSIDING DOWN
TOWARDS 2 TO 3 FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-033-034-036-053-
641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GFS
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