245
FXAK67 PAJK 031846 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1046 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2025
UPDATE
UPDATING FOR SOME SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND
FOR THE 10 AM AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING WIND FORECAST AS FRONT AS PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
DOWNWARDS OVER PANHANDLE WITH ON-SHORE FLOW AND INCREASED WINDS
WITHIN CLARENCE STRAIT UP TO NEAR 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING OFF AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST MARINE WINDS UP TO
20KTS EXPECTED WITHIN CROSS SOUND AND N LYNN CANAL, DIMINISHING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH A DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT MVFR (NORTH) TO IFR
(SOUTH) WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD TODAY AND OUT OF THE AREA.
WE EXPECT TO GENERALLY TREND UP TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH
SOME MVFR LINGERING FOR KLAWOCK AND KETCHIKAN THROUGH ABOUT 3 PM.
WE GET RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS TO IFR FROM SITKA, GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU SOUTHWARD 14Z-17Z
WITH FOG AND LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 552 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SHORT TERM...THE ONCE NEAR-GALE FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO FALL
APART AND BECOME DISCONNECTED FROM THE PARENT LOW AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS
WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER,
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS FROM RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONT. OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ON THE HORIZON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY SEES A BREAK FOR THE PANHANDLE IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTER WINDS FROM A RELAXED GRADIENT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION BEING LYNN CANAL, WHICH, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY LEESIDE
TROUGHING FROM WESTERLY WIND ALOFT MOVING OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS
AND TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA, CAN SEE WINDS UP TO A
MODERATE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY HAS SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
COMING INTO SOME ALIGNMENT REGARDING TIMING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
FOR YAKUTAT. CLUSTER ANALYSIS, MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND THE EPS AND
GEPS WITH SOME MINOR INFLUENCE BY THE GEFS, HAS YIELDED A SOLUTION
LEANING WETTER FOR YAKUTAT, WITH MORE UNCERTAIN RAIN FOR THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE. IN AROUND A 48 HOUR PERIOD, CURRENTLY EXPECTING
2.5 - 4.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE TO EXCEED 5
INCHES IN THE SAME DURATION. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THIS POINT, WITH SOME INDICATING THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND OTHERS KEEPING IT NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.
ULTIMATELY, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO COME TO AN END FOR A SHORT BREAK BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT NOTE ABOUT SNOW BECAUSE IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR: NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE HAINES OR KLONDIKE HIGHWAY DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE UPCOMING RAIN MAKER FOR YAKUTAT LOOKS TO BRING
IN HEFTY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS
WELL ABOVE 5000 FT.
AVIATION.../ THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / CEILINGS STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING ARE 1500 TO 3000 FEET RESULTING IN MARGINAL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN THE SHOWERS. CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS EVIDENT TO
THE YAKUTAT AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE PUSHED EAST OF
PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY BREAKS MY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WINDS GUSTY NEAR SKAGWAY THIS MORNING
UP TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY AND THEY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN THE
EVENING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING, WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DOWN
BELOW 8 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP. SWELL IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
THE SW FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY, ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS.
INSIDE: WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH LYNN CANAL HOLDING OUT
AROUND 20 KT THE LONGEST AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY DEPARTS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT, DIMINISHING FROM 4 TO 6 FT DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS, WITH
HIGHER HEIGHTS STILL AT OCEAN ENTRANCES AND IN AREAS WITH LOCAL
TIDAL CURRENTS AND INFLUENCES (LIKE POINT COUVERDEN).
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...MORGAN
AVIATION UPDATE...GARMON
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