608
FXAK67 PAJK 040636
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1036 PM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2025
UPDATE
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
FRONT HAS COMPLETELY EXITED STAGE LEFT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RESIDUAL ON-SHORE FLOW PATTERN AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
ANTICIPATING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN END THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA,
WITH OVERLAND WINDS DROPPING TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WITH
CALM WINDS AND RESULTANT SATURATED LOW LEVELS, ADDED IN PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM W
TO E AS FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF, WITH YAKUTAT SEEING
RAINFALL FIRST BY 6PM, EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AT
THE USUAL SUSPECT OF YAKUTAT, WITH UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS WITH THIS PASSING
FRONT, LIKELY STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING
EASTWARD TO ICY BAY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY MORNING SEES A STRONGER RAIN MAKER MOVE INTO
THE NE GULF COAST, WITH RAIN RATES INCREASING DURING THE DAY AND
MAXIMIZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
EXPECTING A BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO STILL HIT THE YAKUTAT AREA,
WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN RATES APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. HIGHEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT, AS THE
ALOFT RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST, EXPOSING THE AREA TO DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, FURTHER INCREASING LIFT IN THE AREA. AS THE MAIN JET ALOFT
DRIFTS EASTWARD, EXPECTING TO SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN RATES DRIFT
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY, EVENTUALLY BEING SHEARED APART BY THE COAST
MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVES TO KETCHIKAN ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF AROUND 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH 80%
CONFIDENCE, SPREAD OVER 48 HOURS. LEANING TOWARD THE 3.5 IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, AS THESE AMOUNTS ARE SKEWED A BIT TO THE LEFT.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE PANHANDLE IN 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, NOT SEEING
A FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE NOR
FOR YAKUTAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPCOMING RAIN MAKER FOR YAKUTAT
LOOKS TO BRING IN HEFTY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. THIS LOOKS TO
ELIMINATE THE SNOW RISK FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, SO ALL THIS
FORECASTER CAN SAY FOR A PROPER SNOW STORM: NOT YET.
LOOKING TO ENTER A PERIOD OF RIDGING BEYOND THIS SYSTEM EXITING ON
TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR ALL THOSE SURFING NEAR
PLACES LIKE LENA POINT, STAY TUNED, FOR GOOD NEWS MAY BE IN YOUR
FUTURE.
AVIATION
TAFS WILL LARGELY TREND DOWNWARDS TOWARDS MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.TREND
DOWN SOUTH TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A TREND BACK
TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS. THE AREAS OF MORNING FOG
AND LOW CIGS AOB IFR WILL START TO CLEAR OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH VFR EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AS WE DRY
OUT UNDER SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. RAIN RETURNS
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SPREAD TO THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: EXPECTING TO SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND FOR WINDS, FROM
THE WESTERLY MODERATE BREEZES CURRENTLY BEING SEEN TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A TRANSITIONARY PERIOD
BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SPREADS TO THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF, EXPECTING TO SEE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR
CAPE SUCKLING FROM A MILD BARRIER JET DEVELOPING. NOTHING TOO
INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO BARE IN
MIND. AS FOR SEAS, EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAINLY DUE TO DIMINISHING SWERLY
SWELL AND LACK OF WIND FOR WIND WAVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT LOOKING FOR
HIGHER SEAS TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL MONDAY, WITH A FRESH
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PUSH IN, WHICH LOOK TO DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO EXCEED 10 FT.
INSIDE: SIMILAR TO THE OUTSIDE DISCUSSION, A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
THE TRANSITIONARY PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE
PANHANDLE, BEFORE THE EASTERLY SHIFT WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS, MAINLY EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW, SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...NC
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