480
FXAK67 PAJK 041328
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
528 AM AKDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE. MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
WILL SPREAD IN THE RAIN TO THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
AND THEN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TO SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WEST OF
ICY BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST
TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER.
WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE THEM PICK UP TO 15 KT DURING THE
DAY. AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING LIFTING BY MID MORNING TO
MIDDAY. FOG WILL DEVELOP, ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY MORNING SEES A STRONGER RAIN MAKER MOVE INTO
THE NE GULF COAST, WITH RAIN RATES INCREASING DURING THE DAY AND
MAXIMIZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
EXPECTING A BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO STILL HIT THE YAKUTAT AREA,
WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN RATES APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. HIGHEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT, AS THE
ALOFT RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST, EXPOSING THE AREA TO DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, FURTHER INCREASING LIFT IN THE AREA. AS THE MAIN JET ALOFT
DRIFTS EASTWARD, EXPECTING TO SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN RATES DRIFT
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY, EVENTUALLY BEING SHEARED APART BY THE COAST
MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVES TO KETCHIKAN ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF AROUND 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH 80%
CONFIDENCE, SPREAD OVER 48 HOURS. LEANING TOWARD THE 3.5 IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, AS THESE AMOUNTS ARE SKEWED A BIT TO THE LEFT.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE PANHANDLE IN 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, NOT SEEING
A FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE NOR
FOR YAKUTAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPCOMING RAIN MAKER FOR YAKUTAT
LOOKS TO BRING IN HEFTY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. THIS LOOKS TO
ELIMINATE THE SNOW RISK FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, SO ALL THIS
FORECASTER CAN SAY FOR A PROPER SNOW STORM: NOT YET.
LOOKING TO ENTER A PERIOD OF RIDGING BEYOND THIS SYSTEM EXITING ON
TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR ALL THOSE SURFING NEAR
PLACES LIKE LENA POINT, STAY TUNED, FOR GOOD NEWS MAY BE IN YOUR
FUTURE.
AVIATION
FREDERICK SOUND DOWN TO NORTH CLARENCE STRAIT HAS
SEEN LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO 1/4 SM OR LESS IN WRANGELL AND PETERSBURG THROUGH 4AM. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD, AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW THIS FOG
TO LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND NOT BEGIN
THINNING OUT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM LYNN CANAL
WHICH HAS SOME LOWER CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT STILL
STICKING AROUND AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FOG, THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL START OFF IN VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING BUT
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT DUE TO AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST BRINGING RAIN AND LOWERED
CIGS. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LIGHT WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
IS DUE TO A TRANSITIONARY PERIOD BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES AND THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE WITH THE INCOMING
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPREADS TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF, EXPECTING TO
SEE GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING FROM A MILD BARRIER JET
DEVELOPING. NOTHING TOO INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO BARE IN MIND. AS FOR SEAS, EXPECT WAVE
HEIGHTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
MAINLY DUE TO DIMINISHING SWERLY SWELL AND LACK OF WIND FOR WIND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT LOOKING FOR HIGHER SEAS TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL
MONDAY, WITH A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PUSH IN, WHICH LOOK
TO DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO EXCEED 10 FT.
INSIDE: LIGHT WINDS TO START SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE
EASTERLY SHIFT WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF FOG
AROUND FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS, MAINLY EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW, SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326-329.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-664-671.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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