849
FXAK67 PAJK 041859
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1059 AM AKDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UPDATE
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS FOG OVER MARINE WATERS
WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE TO NORTHERN CHATHAM, STEPHENS
PASSAGE, FREDRICK SOUND, SUMNER STRAIT AND NORTHERN CLARENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 528 AM AKDT SAT OCT 4
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE. MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
WILL SPREAD IN THE RAIN TO THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
AND THEN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TO SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WEST OF
ICY BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST
TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER.
WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE THEM PICK UP TO 15 KT DURING THE
DAY. AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING LIFTING BY MID MORNING TO
MIDDAY. FOG WILL DEVELOP, ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY MORNING SEES A STRONGER RAIN MAKER MOVE INTO
THE NE GULF COAST, WITH RAIN RATES INCREASING DURING THE DAY AND
MAXIMIZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
EXPECTING A BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO STILL HIT THE YAKUTAT AREA,
WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN RATES APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. HIGHEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT, AS THE
ALOFT RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST, EXPOSING THE AREA TO DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, FURTHER INCREASING LIFT IN THE AREA. AS THE MAIN JET ALOFT
DRIFTS EASTWARD, EXPECTING TO SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN RATES DRIFT
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY, EVENTUALLY BEING SHEARED APART BY THE COAST
MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVES TO KETCHIKAN ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF AROUND 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH 80%
CONFIDENCE, SPREAD OVER 48 HOURS. LEANING TOWARD THE 3.5 IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, AS THESE AMOUNTS ARE SKEWED A BIT TO THE LEFT.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE PANHANDLE IN 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, NOT SEEING
A FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE NOR
FOR YAKUTAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPCOMING RAIN MAKER FOR YAKUTAT
LOOKS TO BRING IN HEFTY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. THIS LOOKS TO
ELIMINATE THE SNOW RISK FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, SO ALL THIS
FORECASTER CAN SAY FOR A PROPER SNOW STORM: NOT YET.
LOOKING TO ENTER A PERIOD OF RIDGING BEYOND THIS SYSTEM EXITING ON
TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR ALL THOSE SURFING NEAR
PLACES LIKE LENA POINT, STAY TUNED, FOR GOOD NEWS MAY BE IN YOUR
FUTURE.
AVIATION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES TP
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NEAR PAGN, PAPG AND PAWG.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST
OF THE AREA IS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS BUT HIGH COULD AREA STARTING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FROM THE APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT. AS
THIS FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
CIGS WILL LOWER WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VIS LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP IN THE EVENING TIME FRAME BUT THAT WILL LIFT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND RAIN DEVELOPING FROM FREDRICK SOUND SOUTHWARD
LATE TO NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SO LOCATIONS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID DAY ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: LIGHT WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
IS DUE TO A TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES AND THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE WITH THE INCOMING
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPREADS TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF, EXPECTING TO
SEE GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING FROM A MILD BARRIER JET
DEVELOPING. NOTHING TOO INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO BARE IN MIND. AS FOR SEAS, EXPECT WAVE
HEIGHTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
MAINLY DUE TO DIMINISHING SWERLY SWELL AND LACK OF WIND FOR WIND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT LOOKING FOR HIGHER SEAS TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL
MONDAY, WITH A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PUSH IN, WHICH LOOK
TO DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO EXCEED 10 FT.
INSIDE: LIGHT WINDS TO START SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE
EASTERLY SHIFT WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE LINGERING AROUND
FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE, NORTHERN
CHATHAM, NORTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, TENAKEE INLET, PERIL STRAIT
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND COULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS, MAINLY EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW, SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-664-671.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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