125
FXAK67 PAJK 050001
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SHORT TERM
KEY POINTS:
- A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
RIDGING DEVELOPS.
- TIMES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE GREATEST TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR YAKUTAT.
DETAILS: A FRONT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE YAKUTAT AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
WITH THIS FRONT, WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN. YAKUTAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS OVER THIS EVENT
WITH 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES AND 48 HOUR TOTALS
AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AROUND 1
INCH OR LESS IN 24 HOURS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING
SUNDAY.
WINDS WITH THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE GULF REACHING STRONG
BREEZES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 22 TO 27 KTS.
AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REACH NEAR GALE TO TIMES OF GALE
FORCE WINDS UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES NEAR 17 TO
27 KTS. AS WELL AS MARINE WINDS, LAND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
THE LONG TERM
FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A RETURN TO FORM FOR SE AK - WHICH IS TO
SAY A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE TRACK OF ITS PARENT
LOW, WHICH DIVES NW OUT OF THE INTERIOR, WOULD DURING WINTER
NORMALLY HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF A SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT
THIS IS ONLY EARLY OCTOBER, ANTICIPATE IT BE PRIMARILY A RAIN
EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO
3,500-4,500FT WILL OPEN UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TERMINATION
DUST LINE TO LIKELY CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE MOUNTAINSIDE. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING DOWN TO WHITE PASS IS POSSIBLE AND
COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA
ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVERYWHERE BELOW 3,000FT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN. HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE
GULF, THOUGH THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN SOME
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, BRINGING WITH IT SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. LONG TERM GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A NEAR
NORMAL TREND FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALTHOUGH PLACES TO THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WHILE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT
POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
WEEKS.
AVIATION
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT. PAYA WILL BEGIN TO SEE
RAIN DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. CIG AND VIS WILL DROP TO BE MVFR WITH SOME LOCATIONS
SEEING SOME IFR CONDITIONS FROM SOME LOWER CIGS FROM THE MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS STILL SEEING SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR PAPG WHERE THERE IS LIFR CONDITIONS.
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED TO LIFT SOME AS THE FRONT FROM THE WEST MOVES EAST.
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THERE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE RAINFALL. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND GULF
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS. GALES
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS FROM CAPE SUCKLING TO ICY CAPE
TONIGHT, THEN ICY CAPE TO CAPE SPENCER SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM CAPE SPENCER ON SOUTH TO DIXON
ENTRANCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND WAVES SUNDAY NIGHT, A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. MAY SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT AN ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SWELL LOOKS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 13+ FEET ACROSS
THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS.
INSIDE: LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE, BECOMING MODERATE TO
FRESH. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED. AREAS OF FOG
LOOKS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INSIDE CHANNELS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, SOUTHERN STEPHENS
PASSAGE AND FREDERICK SOUND, BEFORE LIFTING AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
MOVE IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR AKZ326.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...DS
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