551
FXAK67 PAJK 051339
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT / FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE PANHANDLE STARTING IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
INCLUDING JUNEAU SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ANGOON/KAKE BY SUNDAY EVENING, THEN TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE (KETCHIKAN AREA) BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN RATES AS THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH WHICH SHOULD TAKE
ABOUT 3 HOURS AND THAT 3 HOUR BLOCK SHOULD RELEASE A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAIN. WINDS TODAY THROUGH THE INSIDE 10 TO 20 MPH.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
THE LONG TERM
FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A RETURN TO FORM FOR SE AK - WHICH IS TO
SAY A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE TRACK OF ITS PARENT
LOW, WHICH DIVES NW OUT OF THE INTERIOR, WOULD DURING WINTER
NORMALLY HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF A SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT
THIS IS ONLY EARLY OCTOBER, ANTICIPATE IT BE PRIMARILY A RAIN
EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO
3,500-4,500FT WILL OPEN UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TERMINATION
DUST LINE TO LIKELY CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE MOUNTAINSIDE. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING DOWN TO WHITE PASS IS POSSIBLE AND
COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA
ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVERYWHERE BELOW 3,000FT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN. HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE
GULF, THOUGH THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN SOME
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, BRINGING WITH IT SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. LONG TERM GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A NEAR
NORMAL TREND FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALTHOUGH PLACES TO THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WHILE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT
POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
WEEKS.
AVIATION
AS A FRONT TRACKS INLAND, CIG AND VIS ARE DROPPING
INTO MVFR/IFR AS MODERATE RAINFALL ARRIVES, AND A HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BRINGING RAIN INTO THE
PANHANDLE AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, UPWARDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE NORTH.
BUT ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS YOUR AREA, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE.
LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY. FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA, IT SHOULD BEGIN AFTER
08 TO 09Z. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, THE POTENTIAL LLWS WILL
START TO SLIDE IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AFTER 14 TO 15Z AND SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING LLWS CHANCES
SUNDAY EVENING. SOME TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AROUND YAKUTAT AND SITKA, FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE FORECAST PRODUCED BY THE ALASKA AVIATION
WEATHER UNIT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND GULF
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS. GALES OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS FROM CAPE SUCKLING TO ICY CAPE EARLY SUNDAY, THEN
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SPENCER SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM CAPE SPENCER ON SOUTH TO DIXON ENTRANCE. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND WAVES SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT AN ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SWELL LOOKS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 13+ FEET ACROSS
THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS.
INSIDE: LIGHT WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE, BECOMING MODERATE TO
FRESH. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED. ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
FREDERICK SOUND, BEFORE LIFTING AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031>034-641>643-661>664.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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