281
FXAK67 PAJK 061348
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / WEATHER FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND BE OUT
OF THE AREAS. THE OLD SURFACE SLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE SPINNING ABOUT INT TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF, AND THESE WILL TAKE A HALF A DAY TO MOVE
NE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON. AND THEN HAVING THE
CLEARING BACK EDGE AS A NEXT RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH. BY EARLY TUESDAY RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF
YAKUTAT, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MY BE LINGERING THERE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARRYING A LOW
AND FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS, A RESULT OF THE COOL UNSTABLE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP, LIKELY REACHING
3,000 TO 4,000FT TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT TO
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE UPPER PORTIONS OF WHITE
PASS BUT WEAK SNOWFALL RATES AND WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO ROADS. SHOWERS DECREASE LATE TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF, BRINGING STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER ONSHORE FLOW AND RAIN; SNOW TO AREAS
ABOVE 3,000FT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST COLD OUTFLOW EVENT
THIS FALL; AT THIS TIME THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS,
SURFACE HIGH, AND DURATION LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF
SEEING LONG DURATION (12+ HOURS) GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR LYNN CANAL, WITH FURTHER TREND
ANALYSIS REQUIRED MOVING THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, MOST
GUIDANCE HAS AGREEMENT ON PEAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CYXY-PAJN AT 9MB AND PAGY-PAJN NEAR 5MB, WHICH
HISTORICALLY SIGNIFIES SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MAIN IMPACT IS COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 20S THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING FOR OUR UNHOUSED COMMUNITY.
AVIATION
THE MORNING STARTS OFF WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP,
EXPECT THAT VIS AND CIG WILL IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TOWARDS
PREVAILING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON MONDAY, THOUGH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR
SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND EXPECT A LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT TO BRING MORE RAIN STILL, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: BEHIND THE FRONT, FRESH BREEZES AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE IN THE GULF
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.
SIMILAR TO THE INSIDE WATERS, WINDS GREATLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY, SEAS
BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FT WITH 16 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO A
SOUTHWEST SWELL.
INSIDE: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INCREASE
TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS START TO
SEE DECREASING WINDS. FOR THE NORTHERN CHANNELS, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE, AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT GETS STRONGER. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER N. LYNN
CANAL, SLIGHTLY INCREASING, AS SOUTHERLY STRONG BREEZES OF 22 TO 27
KTS WITH NEAR GALE WIND GUSTS UP TO 33 KTS. OTHER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CHANNELS WILL SEE FRESH BREEZES WITH WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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