741
FXAK67 PAJK 061843
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1043 AM AKDT MON OCT 6 2025
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / WEATHER FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND BE
OUT OF THE AREAS. THE OLD SURFACE SLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE SPINNING ABOUT INT TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF, AND THESE WILL TAKE A HALF A DAY TO MOVE
NE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON. AND THEN HAVING THE
CLEARING BACK EDGE AS A NEXT RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST AND SOUTH. BY EARLY TUESDAY RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF YAKUTAT,
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MY BE LINGERING THERE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARRYING A LOW
AND FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS, A RESULT OF THE COOL UNSTABLE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP, LIKELY REACHING
3,000 TO 4,000FT TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT TO
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE UPPER PORTIONS OF WHITE
PASS BUT WEAK SNOWFALL RATES AND WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO ROADS. SHOWERS DECREASE LATE TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF, BRINGING STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER ONSHORE FLOW AND RAIN; SNOW TO AREAS
ABOVE 3,000FT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST COLD OUTFLOW EVENT
THIS FALL; AT THIS TIME THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS,
SURFACE HIGH, AND DURATION LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF
SEEING LONG DURATION (12+ HOURS) GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR LYNN CANAL, WITH FURTHER TREND
ANALYSIS REQUIRED MOVING THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, MOST
GUIDANCE HAS AGREEMENT ON PEAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CYXY-PAJN AT 9MB AND PAGY-PAJN NEAR 5MB, WHICH
HISTORICALLY SIGNIFIES SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MAIN IMPACT IS COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 20S THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING FOR OUR UNHOUSED COMMUNITY.
AVIATION.../UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE REMNANTS OF A
BAND OF RAINY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE SEEING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AOB 2500FT WITH
LOWERED VIS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES AS THE BAND PUSHES
OUT. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS SEEING SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS BAND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS PUSHING THROUGH INTERMITTENTLY. CIGS ARE AROUND 5000FT,
THOUGH LOWER SCATTERED AND BROKEN LAYERS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE LOWERED CONDITIONS. WINDS UP LYNN CANAL ARE PARTICULARLY
GUSTY, AND WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND MVFR FOR A MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL BECOME VFR.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN. AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MAY NOT FEEL THE FULL IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: BEHIND THE FRONT, FRESH BREEZES AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE
IN THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.
SIMILAR TO THE INSIDE WATERS, WINDS GREATLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY,
SEAS BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FT WITH 16 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
DUE TO A SOUTHWEST SWELL.
INSIDE: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SOUTHERN
CHANNELS START TO SEE DECREASING WINDS. FOR THE NORTHERN CHANNELS,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE, AS THE NORTH TO
SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS STRONGER. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER N. LYNN CANAL, SLIGHTLY INCREASING, AS SOUTHERLY STRONG
BREEZES OF 22 TO 27 KTS WITH NEAR GALE WIND GUSTS UP TO 33 KTS.
OTHER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CHANNELS WILL SEE FRESH BREEZES WITH
WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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