193
FXAK67 PAJK 070557
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
957 PM AKDT MON OCT 6 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GOES, OVERALL STILL ON TRACK. A
CHANGE WAS MADE EARLIER THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN REGIONS, WINDS SWUNG TO THE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST AND THE
FORECAST WAS CHANGED TO REFLECT THIS. KEPT THE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST HI-RES AND NBM GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
KEY POINTS:
- THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH EXITING THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN LAND AND INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
DETAILS: THE INITIAL FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
NOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE BRINGING
TIMES OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE SHOWERS,
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE A LOT LOWER, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
ISOLATED TIMES OF MODERATE RAIN.
RIGHT BEHIND THIS LOW, RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE RAIN
FROM THE LOW QUICKLY CLEARS TUESDAY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS. THERE COULD STILL BE TIMES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAINED ELEVATED WITH STRONG
WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY. BETWEEN THE INITIAL FRONT AND FOLLOWING LOW, A QUICK
RIDGE WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP CREATING A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL CONTINUE NEAR SKAGWAY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE LATER IN THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FLATTENING
THE RIDGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THEY MOVE W TO E ALONG THE
N GULF COAST. OF THE TWO TROUGHS THAT DO SO, THE THU INTO FRI
FEATURE IS THE STRONGEST WITH A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LOOKING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY NOT LAST WITH A STRONG TROUGH
RUNNING INTO IT FROM THE W LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
SCENARIOS WHERE THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH
PASSES.
AT GROUND LEVEL, GENERALLY WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER DRY PERIOD
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF KEEPING MOST RAIN AND
CLOUDS AT BAY. MAY BE SOME LOWER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
FOR THE OUTER COAST AT TIMES THOUGH. THAT STARTS TO CHANGE LATER
INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW START TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE
RATHER THEN ALONG SHORE IN DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE
NE OUTER COAST MAY START TO SEE MORE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AS THAT
HAPPENS, AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL START OF MOVE INTO THE
AREA (YAKUTAT FIRST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT). NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL OR WIND AS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING THE RIDGE THE WHOLE WAY AND WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE REALM OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT MOST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY TOP OUT AT 25 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF (20 KT AT MOST IN THE
INNER CHANNELS) BEFORE DIMINISHING.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM
THE BERING SEA AREA. THIS WILL BRIEFLY RAISE SURFACE PRESSURES IN
THE SOUTHERN YUKON ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. NOTHING MORE THEN 25 TO AT
MOST 30 KT IN LYNN CANAL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH 15 TO 20 KT
NORTHERLIES COULD EXTEND DOWN STEPHENS AND CHATHAM STRAIT AS WELL.
IN ADDITION, FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO AROUND 1000 FT
BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER WITH
BY THAT POINT THOUGH SO NO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PASSES, HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
COULD SHOW UP AT WHITE PASS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND
THAT AREA MAY EXPERIENCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY ON HOW AN EX-
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE STORMS OVER THE BERING SEA
NEXT WEEKEND IS TRICKLING DOWN INTO SE'S FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE
IS CURRENTLY TRENDING TOWARD A RATHER WET SCENARIO FOR THE NE GULF
COAST COAST LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME OF THAT EXTENDING
INTO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
IS STILL UNCERTAIN THOUGH SO HOW WET THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
GETS VARIES DEPENDING ON WHAT YOU LOOK AT, BUT THE TREND IS STILL
MAINLY TOWARD WETTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A RECENT FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE PANHANDLE
THIS MONDAY EVENING, ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO BE FOUND AROUND SE AK.
BEHIND THE FRONT IS A QUICK-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
ZIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
THE PANHANDLE DIFFERENTLY FOR THE NORTHERN VS SOUTHERN HALVES.
LOOKING AHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, AREAS SOUTH OF SITKA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF, AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND
SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOMORROW, IT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO THE
AREA. SO EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THEN VFR RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: STRONG BREEZES OF 22 TO 27 KTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL BE ALONG
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. OTHER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FRESH BREEZES
WITH WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 KTS INTO TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN
GULF INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS. SIMILAR TO THE INSIDE WATERS, WINDS GREATLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FT WITH 16 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
WITH A SOUTHWEST SWELL. SIMILAR TO THE WINDS, WAVES WILL DIMINISH
TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAB
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