060
FXAK67 PAJK 080536
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
936 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GOES, OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK.
EDITS THIS EVENING WERE ON WIND SPEEDS WHERE FORECASTED WIND
SPEEDS WERE LOWERED TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO
EDITS TO POP AND SKY TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WED NIGHT
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. A WEAKENING LOW THAT IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF IS STILL PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON THAT IS SENDING SOME HIGHER
LEVEL OVERCAST OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. AS FOR WINDS,
MOST AREAS ARE LESS THEN 15 KT, BUT NORTHERN LYNN AND SKAGWAY HAS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT THAT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM A
LINGERING SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT.
GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THAT RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT RANGE BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND LOWER WINDS. WITH WINDS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CLEARING
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS, GENERALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE LAYER
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE GULF AND OUTER COAST, AND FOG IN THE INNER
CHANNELS UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT OVER
THE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
LATE TONIGHT (DUE TO SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE), POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND
ANGOON THROUGH ICY STRAIT AND PERIL STRAIT. THOSE CLOUDS MAY THEN
DIMINISH A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COMING BACK INLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR THEY MAY
NOT DIMINISH COMPLETELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIKE THEY WOULD AT
THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. THE OUTER COAST NEAR CROSS SOUND TO CAPE
EDGECOMBE MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AT TIMES
(MOST LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT) AS THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE JUST THICK ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE
OUT OF THOSE CLOUDS.
FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR A WIDE AREA TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S TO MID 30S, LIGHT
WINDS, AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
CURRENT THINKING HAS MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS HAVING A HIGH
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER CONDITIONS COULD VARY WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG WHILE OTHERS MAY JUST SEE A LOW
STRATUS DECK, OR NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT ALL, DEPENDING ON LOCAL
CONDITIONS. WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF FALL THE FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOR SOME AREAS AS
WELL. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL,
BUT MAY NOT BE AS WIDE SPREAD GIVEN THE AREA WOULD HAVE HAD A FULL
DAY TO DRY OUT SOME MORE.
LONG TERM
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HEADED INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
IN THE PRINCE WILLIAMS SOUND AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS INTRODUCE A WEAK POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS LOW LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WHITE PASS COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN. HEADED INTO FRIDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA AND TAKES CONTROL
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN RAIN
RETURNS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING FROM YAKUTAT WEST TO CAPE ST.
ELIAS. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ONSHORE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAYTIME. BUT THERE IS THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO OR BELOW
FREEZING, ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT SEE LIGHT WINDS AND DON'T
DEVELOP CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
THE CLEARING SKIES SEEN AROUND THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. SO FAR, PAGS AND
PAYA HAVE REPORTED FOG, OR AT LEAST REDUCED VIS BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS HINTING AT SOME LOW MOISTURE IN THE INNER CHANNELS AND
STUCK ALONG SOME MOUNTAINS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT, THE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND AROUND A GOOD PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE A GOOD COMBO. VIS TO 2 SM OR LESS IS
LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF DENSER FOG DOWN TO 1/2 SM
OR LESS, PARTICULARLY IN THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE.
LOW CEILINGS WILL ALSO THREATEN TO MOVE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
INTO CROSS SOUND THROUGH THE NIGHT, BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
TO THE COAST.
FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR HIGH SCATTERED
CEILINGS TO FILTER IN AND POTENTIALLY DISSIPATE INTO FULLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATER):
CURRENT SITREP OF GULF/COASTAL WATERS IS A FAST-MOVING BUT
DISSIPATING GALE FORCE LOW ORIGINATING OFF THE KENAI, PUSHING SE
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
DECENT SWELL IS DOMINATING THE OUTSIDE, WITH BUOY SPECTRAL DENSITY
FOCUSED 10-13FT AT 11 SECONDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, COURTESY OF A
BROAD FETCH OF GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF THE AK PEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII, A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF DRIVING NW WINDS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFF CHICHAGOF/BARANOF AND
POW COAST. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, SETTLING TO
BELOW 10FT AND BELOW 10 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WAVE
SPECTRUM SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES/CHOP RIDING OVER THE
DECREASING SW SWELL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOW
WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE WNW WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WESTERLY
FRESH SEAS 12 TO 16FT BELOW 10 SECONDS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
FOR MARINERS TRANSITING THE INSIDE, AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE
ARE SEEING DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST CHANNELS, WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING
NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS IN RESPONSE TO A STOUT QUICK MOVING SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
IN OVER THE GULF; WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS BY-AND-LARGE
FOR MAJOR CHANNELS. MARINERS TRANSITING TONIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE
OF POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN PREFERRED PROTECTED AREAS
LIKE PETERSBURG AND KLAWOCK/CRAIG AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND
TEMPERATURES DROP. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERLY WINDS MIX OUT THE SATURATED SHALLOW AIRMASS WITH ANY FOG
LIFTING TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...AP
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