198
FXAK67 PAJK 081336
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2025
SHORT TERM
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FOG WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS PATCHES OF FOG WHICH HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SE AK, ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER
A RIDGE IN THE GULF. A MARINE LAYER WHICH FORMED OVER THE GULF
WILL APPROACH THE NE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING
CHANCES OF DRIZZLE TO AREAS BETWEEN MOUNT FAIRWEATHER AND KRUZOF
ISLAND, BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE.
THE RIDGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE
BRIEFLY BEING INTERRUPTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BY A LOW WHICH
FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF (FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS, SEE
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION).
FOR SE AK, THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOG
WHICH FORMED OVER TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HEATING TAKING LONGER TO
DISSIPATE IT THAN IN PREVIOUS MONTHS OWING TO THE LOWER SUN ANGLE.
FOG MAY REFORM FOR SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ASIDE FROM
THIS AND THE MARINE LAYER, AM NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER WEATHER OF
NOTE ACROSS SE AK, AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CURRENTLY DIRECTING
SYSTEMS INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE.
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND STAY CLEAR
WILL REACH AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, GIVEN THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MARINE LAYER AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEADED INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE PRINCE
WILLIAMS SOUND AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL AS INTRODUCE A WEAK POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS LOW LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS COULD
ALSO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WHITE PASS COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN. HEADED INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA AND TAKES CONTROL FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN RAIN RETURNS WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING FROM YAKUTAT WEST TO CAPE ST. ELIAS. FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
TOP OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ONSHORE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAYTIME. BUT THERE IS THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO OR BELOW
FREEZING, ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT SEE LIGHT WINDS AND DON'T
DEVELOP CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING PUSHES IN ALOFT, WITH MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEING LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND VISBYS DUE TO FOG LIMITING VISBYS DOWN TO AS LOW AS ONE
QUARTER MILE AND LOWERED MARINE LAYERS AOB 1000FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LOWERING SUN ANGLE, ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
OR MARINE LAYER TO BURN OFF A BIT SLOWER. SHOULD START TO SEE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 15Z,
INCREASING THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING WIDESPREAD VFR
UNDER CLEARING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 5000FT BY 00Z. FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AGAIN MOVING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON IMPACTING AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS, BUT CAN'T RULE AN ISOLATED
GUST UP TO 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, GOING NEAR CALM AND
VARIABLE ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NO LLWS CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATER):
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE GULF DRIVING NW WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFF
CHICHAGOF/BARANOF AND POW COAST. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH, SETTLING TO BELOW 10FT AND BELOW 10 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WAVE SPECTRUM SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES/CHOP
RIDING OVER THE DECREASING SW SWELL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING LOW WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH NEAR-GALE
FORCE WNW WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH WESTERLY FRESH SEAS 12 TO 16FT BELOW 10 SECONDS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS IN RESPONSE TO A STOUT QUICK MOVING
SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER THE GULF; WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
15 KNOTS BY-AND-LARGE FOR MAJOR CHANNELS. MARINERS TRANSITING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN
PREFERRED PROTECTED AREAS LIKE PETERSBURG AND KLAWOCK/CRAIG AS
SKIES CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES DROP. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS MIX OUT THE SATURATED
SHALLOW AIRMASS WITH ANY FOG LIFTING TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.
FOG MAY REFORM FOR SOME OF THE CHANNELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY FOR AKZ321-325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP/GFS
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