461
FXAK67 PAJK 082334
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2025
SHORT TERM
WEDNESDAY MORNING’S DRAMATIC LOW CLOUDS/FOG WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE HIGH DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF, WITH PATCHES OF CLEAR SKY
ALOFT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP; A PRECURSOR TO WINTERS
ENCROACH. WHILE JACKETS ZIPPED AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING,
ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB (5,000FT) PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING 10C (50F) AT THE TOP OF THE
SURFACE INVERSION BY THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
TIME OF YEAR 5,000 FT ABOVE ANNETTE ARE NEAR 1C (34F). THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OFF
THE KENAI THURSDAY, DRIVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE FLOW
BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY, WITH FREEZING LEVELS
PLUMMETING TO 1,000FT OR SO BY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
AT SEA LEVEL, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE UPPER ECHELONS OF WHITE PASS; HOWEVER, WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES, WEAK SNOWFALL RATES, AND TIMING WILL LIMIT
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS. SIMPLY PUT, TYPICAL COOL FALL WEATHER,
MINIMAL IMPACTS, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING, FORESHADOWING THE
COMING WINTER.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD
- FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY
- CHANCE FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON
THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM
- NORTHERLY OUTFLOW EVENT SATURDAY
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUILDING ON THE SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION, A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE CONTENT TO WORK WITH AND OVERALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR. BECAUSE OF THIS, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION FULLY EXITS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE NEAR SEA LEVEL COMMUNITIES
CAN EXPECT COOL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING WINDS ALONG
THE RIDGE TOPS, BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG, AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND NE PACIFIC. AS A
RESULT, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WINDS INCREASING ALONG
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO NEAR
GALE FORCE (28 TO 33 KT) WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR
LYNN CANAL ALONG WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. WITH
THIS DRY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF, THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING AT SEA LEVEL FOR MOST COMMUNITIES IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY THOSE FURTHEST FROM THE OUTER
COAST AND SHELTERED FROM SIGNIFICANT WIND. DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 50S FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS WHILE OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES COULD REACH THE MID 50S.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY DIMINISH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OTHERWISE COOL AND CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON TIMING FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE. WHILE SOME MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A LONG FETCHED PLUME OF
MOISTURE, OTHERS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF STAVING THIS
OFF FOR A BIT LONGER INTO MONDAY OR EVEN EARLY TUESDAY. OVERALL
MESSAGE THOUGH IS INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER AN OTHERWISE FAIRLY COLD AND BLUSTERY
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
WHILE MOST PLACES HAVE SEEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. PARTS OF THE
AREA ARE STILL SEEING IMPACTS FROM THE MARINE LAYER THAT DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ONGOING. THIS MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO
SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROADER AREA TO BE IMPACTED. WITH THE
MARINE LAYER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR FOR VIS AND OR CIGS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.
LOCATIONS THAT SAW FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING ALONG WITH DEW POINTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BUT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS):
BUOYS ALONG OUR COAST CONTINUE TO SHOW DECREASING TREND OF SWELL,
REPORTING SW 5-7 FT AT 8-10 SECONDS WEDNESDAY MORNING; SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SETTLE. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD AS A FAST-
MOVING SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE GULF, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
LOCAL/ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG BREEZES ALONG MAJOR CAPES SUCH AS
CAPE EDGECUMBE AND PROMINENT FEATURES ALONG WESTERN PRINCE OF
WALES. UPSTREAM OF THE GULF OF ALASKA, A BROAD FETCH OF SSW WINDS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ARC IS CURRENTLY GENERATING FRIDAY’S SWELL.
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 11-13FT AT 13-15
SECONDS OUT OF THE SW BY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE ALEXANDER
ARCHIPELAGO. WESTERLY WINDS BUILD TO STRONG BREEZES FRIDAY ALONG
OUR COAST AS WELL. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POST FRONTAL WNW
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM COOK INLET COULD BUMP UP WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR
17-20FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF INNER CHANNELS INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCAL/ISOLATED PROBLEM SPOTS LIKE SOUTHERN CHATHAM
STRAIT, PT. COUVERDEN, AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, NOTHING OUTSIDE OF
WHAT WE TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE IN OCTOBER. FRIDAY A NEAR-GALE FORCE
LOW MOVES ALONG OUR COAST, INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL TO STRONG BREEZES. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM
STRAIT, WITH SPEEDS REACHING NEAR-GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS FROM
TAIYA INLET DOWN TO VANDERBILT REEF, DRIVING 6 FT WAVES DOWN LYNN
CANAL TOWARD PT. AUGUSTA IN NORTHERN CHATHAM/ICY STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...AP
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