010
FXAK67 PAJK 210537
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
937 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE
06Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 357 PM AKDT OCT 20
SHORT TERM...A DECAYING STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE STRONG WINDS
MUCH SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS LOW IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MARINE SECTION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST. A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ALONG A JET STREAK AT 500 MB
EXCEEDING 120 KNOTS WILL DIRECT THE JET TOWARDS SE AK. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE POWERFUL JET WILL LEAD TO A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH, WITH THE STRONG
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING UP THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. LOOKING TO SEE A
STRONG LLJ AROUND 2000 FT EXCEEDING 70 KTS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH A MOIST ADIABAT UP TO 900 MB SHOWS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 60-65 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 500 FT. RAIN RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS HAVE A STRONG CHANCE (ABOVE 80%) TO EXCEED
0.15 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A LOWER CHANCE (30% OR LESS) TO EXCEED
0.3 INCHES PER HOUR, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN POW ISLAND AND
KETCHIKAN. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING FROM THIS UPCOMING
SYSTEM GIVEN CURRENT RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS.
LONG TERM.../ WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / FRONTAL BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW 960 MB LOW CENTER IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOLLOWED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
POTENTIAL CONVECTION NEAR THE TERRAIN AS AN ASSIST FOR LIFTING.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE 960 MB-ISH LOW
AND PULL BACK INTO THE GULF WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BAND
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. MAY VERY WELL NEED A WATCH OUT TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY FOR THIS LANDFALLING FRONT. FRONT ALSO WILL BE BRINGING IN
A SOLID MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL YET AGAIN WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, ALONGSIDE OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND DROPS FROM VFR
TO MVFR. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OUTER COASTLINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED CIGS TO 1500
TO 2500 FT AND VIS DROPS TO 3 TO 4SM AS SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH
AROUND 12Z TO 14Z, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE SEEING LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL TONIGHT, WHERE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP CIGS TO AOB 2500 FT
AND DROPS TO VIS TO 4SM BY AROUND 06Z. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IMPROVEMENTS TOMORROW AS MORE SHOWERY ONSHORE FLOW LASTS BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
AND YAKUTAT AREA, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FLYING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL
AROUND 18Z BEFORE THE SHOWERS MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN
OPEN TROUGH FORMING FROM THE WEAKENING LOW, PUSHING ONSHORE FLOW UP
ALONG THE NE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR, SKAGWAY WILL
SWITCH SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MIDDAY AND BEGIN TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 12-17 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 10 TO 15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH AND AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE LLWS FOR TODAY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING TOMORROW NIGHT RIGHT AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
WILL SEE SOME LLWS AGAIN, WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR OF
25-35 KT BEGINNING TO IMPACT AREAS BY AROUND 22Z TO 00Z TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): THE DECAYING STRONG SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INLAND NEAR CAPE SPENCER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE DECAYING LOW, LONG
DURATION WESTERLY GALES FROM CAPE EDGECOMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DUE
TO THE LONG DURATION, LONG FETCH, AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS,
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 FT, PARTICULARLY
OFF THE SW COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LOOKING TO SEE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SE WITH THE ONSET OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CALL THIS A STORM FORCE LOW FOR SUSTAINED
STORM FORCE WINDS. IF STORM FORCE WINDS DO DEVELOP, EXPECT THEM TO
EXTEND OFF SHORE TO THE NW OF HAIDA GWAII UP TO 60 NM OFFSHORE OF
CAPE SPENCER. FINALLY, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG
SURFACE JET ON THE SE QUADRANT ON THIS LOW AS IT BEGINS TO ENTER
THE NE GULF COAST. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
DEVELOPMENT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): A COUPLE OF NOTABLE IMPACTS FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BEGINNING WITH THE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM A MODERATE BREEZE TO A STRONG BREEZE.
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
LYNN CANAL, CURRENTLY LIGHT NORTHERLY, EXPECTED TO MAKE THE
SWITCH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE OUTSIDE WATERS SWITCH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. SPECIAL NOTE TO CROSS SOUND AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT,
AS INCREASING SWELL FROM THE SW IN THE GULF LOOK TO COINCIDE WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES FROM THE E AND NE, INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE ZONES UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING HIGHLIGHTING THE WAVE HEIGHTS
POSSIBLY BEING MUCH HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. COMING IN STRONG
TUESDAY NIGHT IS A STRONG GALE FRONTAL PASSAGE, IMPACTING CLARENCE
STRAIT AND MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CHANNELS. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS AN ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCE FOR MESOSCALE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN EXPECTED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO/SF
MARINE...NC
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