320
FXAK67 PAJK 211509
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
709 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SHORT TERM
THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING,
SENDING A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF ARE
BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
WITH THE STRONGEST SWATH OF SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 34 TO 47 KTS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS (22 TO 33 KTS) ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND NOON, NOT ALLOWING
WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE TO FULLY DECREASE BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN. BY MID AFTERNOON, GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE REACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF POW ISLAND AND WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL UP INTO
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. BY 7PM, A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE ACTIVE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST OVER LAND. GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE PEAK OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND PUSHING UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR LOW-END
SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS WITH STRONG STORM FORCE GUSTS TO
DEVELOP UP HECATE STRAIT INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AND IN AREAS OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE UP TO AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE OF CAPE
SPENCER, THOUGH THIS WOULD BE SHORTLIVED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
SOME AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE A SHORT BREAK IN LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN RATES AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER HAVE A VERY LIKELY CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOUTHERN POW ISLAND, KETCHIKAN
AND METLAKATLA, AND SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS,
WHILE OTHER AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY SEE UP TO AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO HIGH 40S ARE STILL
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AND HIGH 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000
FT PAST MILEPOST 4 ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIMIT WHAT ACTUALLY MAKES IT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / FRONTAL BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW 960 MB LOW CENTER IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOLLOWED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
POTENTIAL CONVECTION NEAR THE TERRAIN AS AN ASSIST FOR LIFTING.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE 960 MB-ISH LOW
AND PULL BACK INTO THE GULF WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BAND
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. MAY VERY WELL NEED A WATCH OUT TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY FOR THIS LANDFALLING FRONT. FRONT ALSO WILL BE BRINGING IN
A SOLID MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL YET AGAIN WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY/
AS FAR AS CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES
ARE CONCERNED, CONDITIONS MAINLY WITHIN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY ALIGNED WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR & LOWER
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES IN. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG & GUSTY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG GALES TO THE
EASTERN GULF & INNER CHANNELS PUSHES UP INTO THE PANHANDLE. LLWS
MAGNITUDES CENTERED ALOFT AT AROUND 1.5 KFT AS HIGH AS AROUND 40
KT OUT OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THE HIGHER VALUES THE MORE SOUTH YOU GO & AROUND THE OUTER COAST.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY STRONG
WINDS FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE HAVE BEGUN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS A GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. 20 TO 25 FT WAVE HEIGHTS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT JUMPS
INTO THE GULF. THE STRONGEST AREA OF WINDS WILL MOVE UP THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GALE FORCE
WINDS BETWEEN 34 TO 47 KTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OVER LAND. STORM FORCE GUSTS (48 TO 55 KTS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF SUSTAINED GALES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
STRONG STORM FORCE GUSTS (56 TO 63 KTS) MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
PEAK OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRONGEST
POCKETS OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO BREACH LOW-END STORM FORCE THROUGH
HECATE STRAIT AND UP TO AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE OF CAPE SPENCER AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 FT WITH A NEARLY 20 FT SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OF AROUND 18 SECONDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS THROUGH N/S FACING CHANNELS ARE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) AS
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO BC. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SENDING A
GALE FORCE FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TO SEE INNER CHANNEL WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH LYNN CANAL HAVING FINALLY SWITCHED SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP THROUGH THE MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE
GUSTS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES MID
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REST OF THE CHANNELS SEEING AT LEAST STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE PEAK OF THE SYSTEM. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES AROUND 20 FT WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 15 FT BEFORE INCREASING BACK UP TO 20 FT WITH THE PEAK
OF THE STORM. SPECIAL NOTE TO CROSS SOUND AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT,
AS INCREASING SWELL FROM THE SW IN THE GULF LOOK TO COINCIDE WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES FROM THE E AND NE, INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE ZONES UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING HIGHLIGHTING THE WAVE HEIGHTS
POSSIBLY BEING MUCH HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ322-
329.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ323-
327-332.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ328.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ328-330-332.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ330.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-033>036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032-053.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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