006
FXAK67 PAJK 211806
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1006 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING,
SENDING A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF ARE
BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
WITH THE STRONGEST SWATH OF SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 34 TO 47 KTS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS (22 TO 33 KTS) ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND NOON, NOT ALLOWING
WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE TO FULLY DECREASE BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN. BY MID AFTERNOON, GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE REACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF POW ISLAND AND WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL UP INTO
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. BY 7PM, A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE ACTIVE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST OVER LAND. GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE PEAK OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND PUSHING UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR LOW-END
SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS WITH STRONG STORM FORCE GUSTS TO
DEVELOP UP HECATE STRAIT INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AND IN AREAS OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE UP TO AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE OF CAPE
SPENCER, THOUGH THIS WOULD BE SHORTLIVED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
SOME AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE A SHORT BREAK IN LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN RATES AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER HAVE A VERY LIKELY CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOUTHERN POW ISLAND, KETCHIKAN
AND METLAKATLA, AND SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS,
WHILE OTHER AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY SEE UP TO AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO HIGH 40S ARE STILL
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AND HIGH 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000
FT PAST MILEPOST 4 ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIMIT WHAT ACTUALLY MAKES IT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / FRONTAL BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW 960 MB LOW CENTER IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOLLOWED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
POTENTIAL CONVECTION NEAR THE TERRAIN AS AN ASSIST FOR LIFTING.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE 960 MB-ISH LOW
AND PULL BACK INTO THE GULF WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BAND
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. MAY VERY WELL NEED A WATCH OUT TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY FOR THIS LANDFALLING FRONT. FRONT ALSO WILL BE BRINGING IN
A SOLID MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL YET AGAIN WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
CONTINUING TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND SHOWERS INTO THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SOME DROPS TO IFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME
PERIODS OF VFR IN BETWEEN THESE SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE IN BY TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST WILL REMAIN JUMPING BETWEEN LARGELY VFR AND MVFR WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DROP TO MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST NEAR SITKA, AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BRINGING 15-25 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT, WITH THE
STRONGER OF THESE WINDS EXPECTED IN SITKA, WRANGELL AND KETCHIKAN
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALONGSIDE PERIODS OF VIS DROPPING TO 3 TO 4SM AS
HEAVIER RAINFALL BEGINS AND LOWERED CIGS TO AOB 1500FT AS THE
FRONT HITS. OCCASIONAL DROPS TO CIGS TO AOB 800 FT POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT LARGELY EXPECTING MVFR
CONDITIONS.
REGARDING LLWS CONCERNS, SOUTHEASTERLY 30-40KT WINDS AT 1500 FT
WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING
INTO TONIGHT, THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
45-60 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AROUND CLARENCE STRAIT, KETCHIKAN, AND
KLAWOCK. THE LLWS OF 60 KT AT 2000 FT WILL BE ABOVE POW LATER
TONIGHT, WITH HIGH WINDS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE AND AROUND
SOUTHERN POW ALONG THE COAST. LLWS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, AS SURFACE WINDS AND MORE GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12-14Z.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY STRONG
WINDS FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE HAVE BEGUN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS A GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. 20 TO 25 FT WAVE HEIGHTS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT JUMPS
INTO THE GULF. THE STRONGEST AREA OF WINDS WILL MOVE UP THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GALE FORCE
WINDS BETWEEN 34 TO 47 KTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OVER LAND. STORM FORCE GUSTS (48 TO 55 KTS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF SUSTAINED GALES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
STRONG STORM FORCE GUSTS (56 TO 63 KTS) MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
PEAK OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRONGEST
POCKETS OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO BREACH LOW-END STORM FORCE THROUGH
HECATE STRAIT AND UP TO AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE OF CAPE SPENCER AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 FT WITH A NEARLY 20 FT SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OF AROUND 18 SECONDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS THROUGH N/S FACING CHANNELS ARE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) AS
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO BC. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SENDING A
GALE FORCE FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TO SEE INNER CHANNEL WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH LYNN CANAL HAVING FINALLY SWITCHED SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP THROUGH THE MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE
GUSTS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES MID
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REST OF THE CHANNELS SEEING AT LEAST STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE PEAK OF THE SYSTEM. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES AROUND 20 FT WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 15 FT BEFORE INCREASING BACK UP TO 20 FT WITH THE PEAK
OF THE STORM. SPECIAL NOTE TO CROSS SOUND AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT,
AS INCREASING SWELL FROM THE SW IN THE GULF LOOK TO COINCIDE WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES FROM THE E AND NE, INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE ZONES UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING HIGHLIGHTING THE WAVE HEIGHTS
POSSIBLY BEING MUCH HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ322-
329.
STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ323-327-332.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ328.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ328-330-332.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ330.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ644-662>664-671.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-053-641>643-651-652-661-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...ZTK
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