520
FXAK67 PAJK 220609 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1005 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2025
UPDATE
FOR 06Z AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATE
SHORT TERM UPDATE
WE HAD JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND MARINE WATERS.
HIGHER WINDS ARE COMING IN A BIT LATER FOR SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY WE EXPECT THE HIGHER WINDS ABOVE 1000 FT ELEVATION WITH GUSTS
AT 50 PLUS MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES CLOSER TO LAND AREAS AT SEA
LEVEL...AND AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS. THIS JUST
IN...METLAKATLA AWOS GUSTED TO 60 MPH AT 10 PM. /GARMON
AVIATION UPDATE
FOR THE 06Z AVIATION PACKAGE UPDATE WE EXPECT
MVFR TO GRADUALLY WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS WELL EAST OF THE STRONG LOW (CENTERED ABOUT 365 MILES
EAST OF SITKA) TO ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS TONIGHT FOR PASI, PAKW AND PAKT AREAS
WHERE WINDS AROUND 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL ARE BLOWING 40-50 KT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN WITH
PASSING SHOWERS, SO GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS AT THE AIRPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN GUSTS TO
52 KT AT METLAKATLA WITH SITKA 25G35KT. WE EXPECT A GRADUAL
LIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME 15Z-20Z THEN IT
PICKS BACK UP WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
/GARMON
MARINE UPDATE
THE STORM FORCE LOW WAS CENTERED AT 10 PM AKDT
NEAR 56.44N AND 145.11W. STORM FORCE WINDS IN FREQUENT GUSTS EXTEND
OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER FOR APPROXIMATELY 280 NM. WE SENT OUT A
QUICK UPDATE AT 9 PM AKDT TO UPDATE WIND TIMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WE HAVE KEPT STORM WARNINGS OFFSHORE
AND GALE WARNINGS AS PREVIOUSLY POSTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
STORM FORCE (48-63KT) ARE BEING SEEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WATERS OUT PAST 90 MILES OFFSHORE WITH HIGHER END GALE
FORCE GUSTS BEING NOTED AT THE SURFACE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SHORT TERM...FOR THE LAND AREAS, THE MESSAGE REMAINS MOSTLY THE
SAME: HIGH WINDS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, STRONG WINDS
40-50 MPH FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE ICY STRAIT AREA. WHAT IS SOMETHING OF CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY LOOKING AT SATELLITE, IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
MESOSCALE LOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND. TYPICALLY FOR THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH STRONG JETS ALOFT (GREATER THAN 110 KNOTS AT 500 MB)
AND SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES DEVELOP IS MUCH HIGHER. ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STRONGER GUSTS,
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
LONG TERM...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG GALE FORCE SYSTEM IMPACTS PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40+ MPH FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
- ISOLATED GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH FOR FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
THURSDAY
- WIND AND RAIN OVERALL LIGHTEN UP HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
A STRONG GALE FORCE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY BEHIND THE STORM
FORCE SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS SMALLER MESOLOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH TO THE
INITIAL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL
THE MESSAGE FOR THESE SYSTEMS IS THAT THE THE ENHANCED SURFACE
WINDS BOTH ON LAND AND OVER MARINE WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACT, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS WITH THE FIRST STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE SAME AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ALSO BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS SECOND
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND CLARENCE STRAIT
LOOKS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THIS IS A DYNAMIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING AND TRACK DEVIATION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS NEXT STRONG GALE FORCE SYSTEM, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE BLANKETED WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND
HERE AND THERE. WITH THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD OVER
THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT COOLING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DROPS TO VIS AND CIGS
AS WELL AS WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF IS CURRENTLY
JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING NE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE, ALREADY
BRINGING SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF IT. THE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE AROUND 04 TO 05Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST, AND AROUND 06
TO 08Z FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT MOVES NE. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, VIS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4SM DURING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL, AND CIGS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 FT,
WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE HAINES
AREA AS CIGS HAVE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO AOB 700 FT. IN TERMS OF
WIND THREATS, WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT,
WITH BETWEEN 15-25 KT SUSTAINED AND 20-30KT GUSTS FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH AN EXPECTED 20-25 KT WINDS AND
30-35 KT GUSTS DURING AND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE PANHANDLE. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN
LARGELY MVFR FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS THIS NEXT WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWS AND BRINGS MORE LOW CLOUDS ONSHORE AND DROPS IN VIS, WHILE
THE COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR BY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS BEGIN TO
LIFT.
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS FRONT, AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN ALONG THE COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT 925 MB. 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
2000FT WILL IMPACT AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LLWS
IMPACTS EARLIER AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, WITH SE 35 TO 45 KT WINDS
AT 1500 FT, AND HIGHER LLWS JUST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
POW WITH AROUND 60 KTS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE GULF.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): ONE SMALL CHANGE AND ONE LARGE
CHANGE TO OUTSIDE WATERS FORECAST. THE FIRST, IS AN UPGRADE FROM
STRONG GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE OUTSIDE
WATER ZONES. WHILE THIS MAY SEEM DRASTIC, WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS
IS AN INCREASE OF AROUND 5 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS, FROM 45 TO
50 KNOTS. OVERALL, THE MESSAGE IS THE SAME: VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS. FOR THE LARGER
CHANGE: LOOKING TO SEE A STRONGER FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
LOW, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AROUND 200 NM, WITH WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING STORM FORCE. THIS MARKS A SHIFT FROM A SINGULAR
FRONT TO A MULTI-FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH EACH FRONT CONSISTING OF
STORM FORCE WINDS. THEREFORE, AREAS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WILL HIT
STORM FORCE WINDS TWICE WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY BARRIER JETS EACH TIME.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS, WITH STRONG GALES LOCALIZED TO THE CLARENCE
STRAIT AREA WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG BREEZES TO GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF DIMINISHED WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR INNER
CHANNELS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME LOW, WILL SEE WINDS KICK BACK UP.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ322.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ326-329.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ327.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ328-330-332.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ644-652-663-664-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-053-641>643-651-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032.
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...JG
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