157
FXAK67 PAJK 221447
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
647 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2025
SHORT TERM
THE STORM FORCE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY IS NOW ABOUT HALFWAY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE OUTER GULF HAVE LARGELY
DECREASED OVERNIGHT, THOUGH STILL SEEING GALES (34 TO 40 KTS)ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST, INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, AND IN THE CENTRAL
GULF. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE GULF WINDS WILL
DECREASE DOWN TO NEAR GALE FORCE (28 TO 33 KTS) BUT STAY
RELATIVELY ELEVATED BEFORE ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEE THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM,
WITH THE ONLY CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT BEING INCREASED WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND FREDERICK SOUND WITH THE INITIAL
SOUTHERLY SURGE AND DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORM
FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF BASED ON LOW HREF
PROBABILITY.
MUCH OF THE INITIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS NOW
PASSED, BUT CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ASSIST IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS MAY BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY PASS OVER, THOUGH
HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES. SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THIS EVENING, WITH THE SOUTH SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
FAST MOVING AND WILL ONLY BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AROUND HALF
AN INCH FOR THE NORTH AND AN INCH FOR THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT, THOUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF SHOWERS LOOK TO ALSO BRING
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TO A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THESE SHOWERS, THOUGH ONLY A HANDFUL OF STRIKES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED OUT IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 50S TO HIGH 40S ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGH 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG GALE FORCE SYSTEM IMPACTS PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40+ MPH FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
- ISOLATED GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH FOR FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
THURSDAY
- WIND AND RAIN OVERALL LIGHTEN UP HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
A STRONG GALE FORCE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY BEHIND THE STORM
FORCE SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS SMALLER MESOLOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH TO
THE INITIAL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL THE MESSAGE FOR THESE SYSTEMS IS THAT THE THE ENHANCED
SURFACE WINDS BOTH ON LAND AND OVER MARINE WATERS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS WITH THE FIRST STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE SAME AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ALSO BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS SECOND
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND CLARENCE STRAIT
LOOKS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THIS IS A DYNAMIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING AND TRACK DEVIATION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS NEXT STRONG GALE FORCE SYSTEM, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE BLANKETED WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND
HERE AND THERE. WITH THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD OVER
THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT COOLING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY/
AS FAR AS CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES
ARE CONCERNED, CONDITIONS MAINLY AROUND THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY RATHER WINDY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT THROUGH THE
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE REGION WILL ALSO KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THIS MORNING, & A SECONDARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL APPROACH & START
PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD, WHICH WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE TREND GOING. LLWS MAGNITUDES
CENTERED ALOFT BETWEEN 1.5 & 2 KFT AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 KT OUT OF
A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): THE PREVIOUS STORM FORCE FRONT HAS
PUSHED ON LAND, WITH A SECONDARY GALE FORCE FRONT FOLLOWING THE
LOW CENTER NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON LAND IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY, BRINGING STRONG SUSTAINED GALES (41 TO 47 KTS) ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE GUSTS AROUND
50 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE STRONGEST SWATH OF WINDS, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING STRONGER GUSTS AT THE PEAK OF
THE FRONT MIDDAY. WIDESPREAD NEAR GALES TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GULF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
EVENING AS ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTH. HIGH END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE UP THROUGH
DIXON ENTRANCE AND ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 30 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SYSTEM UP TO THE NORTHERN GULF
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MATCH THE REST OF THE GULF AT 20 FT OR LESS,
BUT AROUND 20 TO 25 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FT AT THE PEAK OF THE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTLINE,
WITH A FEW STRIKES ALREADY HAVING BEEN SEEN OFF THE COAST OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE UP TO CAPE SPENCER.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ARE DECREASING DOWN TO STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,
BUT WILL QUICKLY START TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
GALE FORCE SYSTEM MOVES UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING UP CLARENCE STRAIT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THEN WILL SPREAD UP SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND
INTO FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT. AS THE FRONT MAKES
LANDFALL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOSE
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED GALES IN THE
SOUTHERN CHANNELS WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS. ISOLATED
STRONG GALES TO STORM FORCE GUSTS (41 TO 55 KTS) WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE PEAK OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND NEAR
SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES. NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WON'T SEE AS
STRONG OF WINDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL PICK UP
TO AT LEAST STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27 KTS) LATER IN THE DAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES AROUND 12 TO 13 FT WILL
INCREASE TO 18 TO 20 FT WITH THE PEAK OF THE STORM.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ317.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ323-326.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ327-330-332.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ327.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-034-036-641>644-661>664-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032-033-035-053.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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