198
FXAK67 PAJK 222326
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTS TO 60 MPH, THAT MAY IMPACT POWER, DO TO OUTAGES OR DAMAGE
BECAUSE OF FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AS
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WITH MAXIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS AND
STORM FORCE GUSTS SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH
WIND WARNING IN EFFECT.
- FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THE WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN. AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OF 4 TO 6 HOURS
LONG IS ANTICIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SNOW OR WET SNOW FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH THURSDAY,
ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 INCHES IN BOTH UPCOMING 12 HOUR PERIODS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY. HAINES HIGHWAY SNOWFALL MAINLY FALLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER AT ELEVATION. SNOW LEVELS FALLING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MAINTAINS UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER
SOUTHEAST AK INTO NEXT WEEK.
- PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAKER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WEAKER GRADIENT LENDS ITSELF TO OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / THE LAST OF SERIES OF
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF IS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL SWEEP
THROUGH WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FRONT. LAND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE, THE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AIRMASS
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL DEVELOP OF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
WOULD SEE HEAVIER RAIN RATES, AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STORM OUTFLOWS.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, HAD TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MATCH
OB, AND MATCH THE SNOW THAT HAD BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS WHITE PASS.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE SNOW, SO HAVE PUT ABOUT 3 INCHES
TONIGHT AND 3 FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WHILE THE ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER SOUTHEAST AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
OVERALL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVE TO BE MORE NUISANCE
AND BE LESS IMPACTFUL THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME INHERENT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVIER SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST GULF
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE OUTER COAST SEEING THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND INTERIOR
COMMUNITIES HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE BREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR
OR BELOW 1000 FT FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO BE SEEN AT SEA LEVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU,
THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT SEA LEVEL ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION.../STARTING 00Z THURSDAY/
AVIATION CONCERNS IN THIS
TAF PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CENTERED ON THE NEXT 10 TO 15 HOURS OR SO.
AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING LOWERED CONDITIONS - MVFR WITH TIMES
OF IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BUT AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVED TO HIGH-END MVFR TO VFR FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO START IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
AROUND 04 TO 06Z. THE LOWERED CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE (SITKA TO PETERSBURG AREA) BY AROUND 7 TO 8Z.
REACHING THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR A COUPLE HOURS LATER.
CONDITIONS COULD START TO IMPROVE WITHIN 3 TO 5 HOURS OF THE FRONT'S
ARRIVAL TIME. THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE A BETTER CHANCE FOR HIGH-
END MVFR TO VFR FOR THURSDAY.
THAT BEING SAID, WIND AND LLWS WILL BE A BIG FACTOR WITH THIS FRONT.
LLWS MAGNITUDES ALOFT CENTERED AROUND 1 & 2 KFT AS HIGH AS AROUND 40
TO 50 KT OUT OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AROUND 18 TO 20Z IS WHEN
LLWS WILL START TO DIMINISH.
BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, HIGH-END MVFR TO VFR IS MORE LIKELY
WITH CALMER WINDS.
MARINE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA, AND ASSOCIATE WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT ON THE
OUTSIDE WATERS AND 25 TO 35 KT FOR THE INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR
40 TO 45 KT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. GUSTS FOR WITH THE WINDS COULD BE
UP TO 60 KT. SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF UP TO 23 FEET AND LOWERING
THE 10 TO 15 FT BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
CONTINUED STORMS TRACKING THROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS RAISE WATER LEVELS IN THE RESERVOIRS THAT LAKE CONNELL
DAMS LEVEL AND WATER BEING RELEASED IS RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING
AT THE WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. EXPECT THE SITUATION TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ317.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ323-326.
STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ327.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT FOR AKZ328-330-332.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032-053.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...BEZENEK
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