754
FXAK67 PAJK 231433
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
633 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2025
SHORT TERM
A GALE FORCE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SLOWLY DIRECTING IT NORTH WHERE IT WILL PUSH ONSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE UNDER
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING TO NORTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES BEFORE
FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INLAND. FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE, ALLOWING SHOWERS TO
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE OUTER COAST
MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, WHILE THE
INTERIOR PANHANDLE WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RATES AS SHOWERS PASS OVER. WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN, WITH MORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATED
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
WITH INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COAST OF THE PANHANDLE, SOME OF WHICH HAVE INTENSIFIED
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MOVING
TOWARD POW ISLAND, BARANOF ISLAND, AND WESTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND,
THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THESE CELLS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY REACHED
LAND. ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT PART OF THE
WAY UP SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH FURTHER INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY. A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN WARD LAKE
RECREATIONAL AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING THEIR STEADY DECENT THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS (22 TO 33 KTS) ALONG THE OUTER
COAST AND INTO THE CHANNELS DECREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES (11 TO 21 KTS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO HIGH 40S ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGH 40S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 FEET
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, INDICATING SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH THURSDAY, ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 TO 4
INCHES IN THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. HAINES HIGHWAY IS ALSO
SEEING A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE SNOW IS MAINLY
FALLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER AT ELEVATION. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WHILE THE ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER SOUTHEAST AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
OVERALL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVE TO BE MORE NUISANCE
AND BE LESS IMPACTFUL THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME INHERENT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVIER SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST GULF
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE OUTER COAST SEEING THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND INTERIOR
COMMUNITIES HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE BREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR
OR BELOW 1000 FT FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO BE SEEN AT SEA LEVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU,
THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT SEA LEVEL ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY/
AS FOR CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES,
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY, BUT
WILL TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS & PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA,
CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOMEWHAT. THE PANHANDLE
WILL ALSO KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS
MAGNITUDES CENTERED ALOFT AT AROUND 2 KFT AS HIGH AS AROUND 35 KT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OUT OF A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH SOME VARIATION TO THE EAST OR WEST.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): THE PREVIOUS GALE FORCE FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING GULF WATERS TO START STEADILY
DECREASING THROUGH THURSDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE
REPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS (28 TO 33 KTS) WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS (34 TO 40 KTS) AT THIS POINT. POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AND UP ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LARGELY DECREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED INTENSIFYING ALONG THE
OUTER COAST OF BARANOF AND POW ISLANDS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20
FT ARE QUICKLY DECREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, DROPPING DOWN
TO 10 TO 15 FT BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
ARE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
(17 TO 27 KTS) THROUGH MANY OF THE CHANNELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS LARGELY DROPPING OFF TO MATCH. WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT IN THE INTERIOR CHANNELS WILL DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING
BETWEEN 15 TO 18 FT DROP TO AROUND 10 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE CHANNELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
THOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INCREDIBLY FAR.
HYDROLOGY
CONTINUED STORMS TRACKING THROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS RAISE WATER LEVELS IN THE RESERVOIRS THAT LAKE CONNELL
DAMS LEVEL AND WATER BEING RELEASED IS RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING
AT THE WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. EXPECT THE SITUATION TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
HYDROLOGY...BEZENEK
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