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FXAK67 PAJK 231815 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2025
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. DECREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WITHIN
INNER CHANNELS, PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND CROSS
SOUND. STILL ANTICIPATING GENERAL SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF INNER CHANNELS, GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS,
ANTICIPATING STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 35KTS FROM CAPE SPENCER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE N GULF COAST TOWARDS CAPE SUCKLING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS OF PRINCE OF WALES, WESTERN
KUPREANOF, BARANOF ISLANDS, NORTHWARD ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRIKES REACHING INTO THE
INNER CHANNELS IF ANY STRONGER STORMS MANAGE TO PUSH INLAND, BUT
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED, MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PREV DISCUSSION....ISSUED AT 633 AM THUR 23 OCT 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTS TO 60 MPH, THAT MAY IMPACT POWER, DO TO OUTAGES OR DAMAGE
BECAUSE OF FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AS
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WITH MAXIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS AND
STORM FORCE GUSTS SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH
WIND WARNING IN EFFECT.
- FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THE WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN. AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OF 4 TO 6 HOURS
LONG IS ANTICIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SNOW OR WET SNOW FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH THURSDAY,
ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 INCHES IN BOTH UPCOMING 12 HOUR PERIODS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY. HAINES HIGHWAY SNOWFALL MAINLY FALLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER AT ELEVATION. SNOW LEVELS FALLING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MAINTAINS UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER
SOUTHEAST AK INTO NEXT WEEK.
- PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAKER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WEAKER GRADIENT LENDS ITSELF TO OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
A GALE FORCE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY
DIRECTING IT NORTH WHERE IT WILL PUSH ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE UNDER SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
SWING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
TO NORTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES BEFORE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES
TO PUSH INLAND. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, CONTINUOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
PANHANDLE, ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE OUTER COAST MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, WHILE THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RATES
AS SHOWERS PASS OVER. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN, WITH
MORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
WITH INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COAST OF THE PANHANDLE, SOME OF WHICH HAVE INTENSIFIED
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MOVING
TOWARD POW ISLAND, BARANOF ISLAND, AND WESTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND,
THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THESE CELLS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY REACHED
LAND. ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT PART OF THE
WAY UP SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH FURTHER INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY. A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN WARD LAKE
RECREATIONAL AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING THEIR STEADY DECENT THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS (22 TO 33 KTS) ALONG THE OUTER
COAST AND INTO THE CHANNELS DECREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES (11 TO 21 KTS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO HIGH 40S ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGH 40S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 FEET
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, INDICATING SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH THURSDAY, ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 TO 4
INCHES IN THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. HAINES HIGHWAY IS ALSO
SEEING A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE SNOW IS MAINLY
FALLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER AT ELEVATION. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WHILE THE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, OVERALL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVE
TO BE MORE NUISANCE AND BE LESS IMPACTFUL THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS
PAST WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME INHERENT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SOME THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVIER SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST
GULF INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE OUTER COAST SEEING THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND INTERIOR
COMMUNITIES HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE BREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR
OR BELOW 1000 FT FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO BE SEEN AT SEA LEVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU,
THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT SEA LEVEL ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
AS FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA, WITH CIGS AOA 1500FT
AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 6SM WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF PRINCE OF WALES, WESTERN KUPREANOF,
BARANOF ISLANDS, NORTHWARD ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OVERARCHING FLIGHT TRENDS TO CONTINUE,
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE THIS EVENING AFTER
00Z WITH CIGS AOB 3000FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, DECREASING
FURTHER TO AOB 2500FT BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THE INNER CHANNEL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD, UP
TO 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 06Z, GOING NEAR 10KTS OR
LESS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
STOUT S TO SE-LY LLWS UP TO 30 TO 40KTS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE TAF SITES THIS MORNING, SUPPORTED BY JUNEAU JAWS
READINGS AND LOCAL PIREPS. LLWS WILL SHIFT MORE S TO SW-LY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING AS
FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): THE PREVIOUS GALE FORCE FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING GULF WATERS TO START STEADILY
DECREASING THROUGH THURSDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE
REPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS (28 TO 33 KTS) WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS (34 TO 40 KTS) AT THIS POINT. POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AND UP ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LARGELY DECREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED INTENSIFYING ALONG THE
OUTER COAST OF BARANOF AND POW ISLANDS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20
FT ARE QUICKLY DECREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, DROPPING DOWN
TO 10 TO 15 FT BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
ARE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
(17 TO 27 KTS) THROUGH MANY OF THE CHANNELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS LARGELY DROPPING OFF TO MATCH. WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT IN THE INTERIOR CHANNELS WILL DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING
BETWEEN 15 TO 18 FT DROP TO AROUND 10 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE CHANNELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
THOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INCREDIBLY FAR.
HYDROLOGY
CONTINUED STORMS TRACKING THROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
RAISE WATER LEVELS IN THE RESERVOIRS THAT LAKE CONNELL DAMS LEVEL
AND WATER BEING RELEASED IS RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING AT THE
WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. EXPECT THE SITUATION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661-
662-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
HYDROLOGY...BEZENEK
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