780
FXAK67 PAJK 232317
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MINOR FLOODING IN THE WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND ADDITIONAL ONGOING
SHOWERS
- SNOW OR WET SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 INCHES IN BOTH UPCOMING
12 HOUR PERIODS. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 2500
FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. HAINES HIGHWAY SNOWFALL TO
REMAIN MAINLY FALLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER AT
ELEVATION. SNOW LEVELS FALLING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAINY WEATHER DIMINISHES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER/DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF THAT ARE PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW, ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS
OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE AIRPORT IN KETCHIKAN OBSERVED A PERIOD
OF RAIN OF JUST UNDER 0.75 INCHES IN AN HOUR. WITH THESE LOCALIZED
HEAVIER SHOWERS, VISIBILITIES CAN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY
FEATURING SOME ICE PELLETS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TAKE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY.
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH A HINT OF COOLING TO COME FIRST
IN THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS AND MORE SNOW WILL BECOME
VISIBLE ON MOUNTAINTOPS IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TREND AND WHAT
TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
THE LONG TERM
FORECAST BEGINS WITH QUIETER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A DIMINISHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF, IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON, WILL GIVE DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WHILE CHANCES WON'T COMPLETELY GO AWAY FOR SOME
AREAS OF SE, LESS PRECIP AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THESE DIMINISHING CHANCES WILL COME THANKS TO EXPECTED NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
AIR, WHICH MAY GIVE SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. FOR YOU SNOW FANS, THERE IS A CATCH - THE
COOLER AIR THAT MIGHT GIVE SNOW IS ALSO DRIER, WHICH GIVES
DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. SO WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW
DURING THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY, THE WINDOW IS RELATIVELY SMALL
BECAUSE THE VERY PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS
ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS BRINGING LOWERING POPS. EITHER WAY, THIS
FORECASTER IS EXCITED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SNOW, EVEN
THOUGH IT'S A SMALL CHANCE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
THE GULF OF ALASKA WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SWING BACK TO MORE OF
AN ONSHORE PATTERN THAT WOULD GIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH GIVES
RAINY WEATHER.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA, WITH CIGS AOA
1500FT AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 6SM WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF PRINCE OF WALES, WESTERN
KUPREANOF, BARANOF ISLANDS, NORTHWARD ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, ANTICIPATING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OVERARCHING FLIGHT
TRENDS TO CONTINUE, MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z WITH CIGS AOB 3000FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE, DECREASING FURTHER TO AOB 2500FT BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THE INNER
CHANNEL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD, UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO
30KTS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
06Z, GOING NEAR 10KTS OR LESS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
BROAD S TO SE-LY LLWS UP TO 30KTS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTED BY JUNEAU JAWS
READINGS AND LOCAL PIREPS. LLWS WILL SHIFT MORE S TO SW-LY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
06Z THIS EVENING AS FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE FORCE FRONT
THIS MORNING, WINDS IN THE GULF HAVE BEEN LARGELY DECREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) OR LESS. LONE HOLDOUT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF BUOY 46082 WHICH IS STILL HOLDING STRONG WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GULF
THROUGH THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FT HAVE QUICKLY
DECREASED IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS GALE FORCE FRONT AND WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 FT BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO
27 KTS) THROUGH MANY OF THE CHANNELS WILL DROP DOWN TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS LARGELY DROPPING OFF TO MATCH. LAST HOLDOUTS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE INNER CHANNELS FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD AS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT IN THE INTERIOR CHANNELS WILL DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING
BETWEEN 15 TO 18 FT DROP TO AROUND 10 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-033-036-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
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