942
FXAK67 PAJK 240556
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2025
UPDATE
EVENING UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 6Z TAF
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 317 PM THUR 23 OCT 2025
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MINOR FLOODING IN THE WARD LAKE RECREATIONAL DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND ADDITIONAL ONGOING
SHOWERS
- SNOW OR WET SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 INCHES IN BOTH UPCOMING
12 HOUR PERIODS. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 2500
FEET ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. HAINES HIGHWAY SNOWFALL TO
REMAIN MAINLY FALLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER AT
ELEVATION. SNOW LEVELS FALLING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAINY WEATHER DIMINISHES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER/DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF THAT ARE PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW, ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS
OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE AIRPORT IN KETCHIKAN OBSERVED A PERIOD
OF RAIN OF JUST UNDER 0.75 INCHES IN AN HOUR. WITH THESE LOCALIZED
HEAVIER SHOWERS, VISIBILITIES CAN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY
FEATURING SOME ICE PELLETS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TAKE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY.
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH A HINT OF COOLING TO COME FIRST
IN THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS AND MORE SNOW WILL BECOME
VISIBLE ON MOUNTAINTOPS IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TREND AND WHAT
TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...THE LONG TERM
FORECAST BEGINS WITH QUIETER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A DIMINISHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF, IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON, WILL GIVE DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WHILE CHANCES WON'T COMPLETELY GO AWAY FOR SOME
AREAS OF SE, LESS PRECIP AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THESE DIMINISHING CHANCES WILL COME THANKS TO EXPECTED NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
AIR, WHICH MAY GIVE SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. FOR YOU SNOW FANS, THERE IS A CATCH - THE
COOLER AIR THAT MIGHT GIVE SNOW IS ALSO DRIER, WHICH GIVES
DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. SO WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW
DURING THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY, THE WINDOW IS RELATIVELY SMALL
BECAUSE THE VERY PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS
ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS BRINGING LOWERING POPS. EITHER WAY, THIS
FORECASTER IS EXCITED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SNOW, EVEN
THOUGH IT'S A SMALL CHANCE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
THE GULF OF ALASKA WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SWING BACK TO MORE OF
AN ONSHORE PATTERN THAT WOULD GIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH GIVES
RAINY WEATHER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE LOWERED CONDITIONS TO OCCASIONALLY IFR FOR CERTAIN LOCATIONS
BUT OTHERWISE, CIGS REMAIN EITHER AROUND 1500- 2500FT WHILE
ELSEWHERE, CIGS REMAIN CLOSER TO 3500-4500 FT. VIS WITH THESE
SHOWERS HAS GENERALLY REMAINED GREATER THAN 6 SM BUT THE
OCCASIONAL DROP TO 4-5 SM IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS DROPPING DOWN TO
LESS THAN 3 SM IS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. HEADING INTO TOMORROW, THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE FORCE FRONT
THIS MORNING, WINDS IN THE GULF HAVE BEEN LARGELY DECREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) OR LESS. LONE HOLDOUT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF BUOY 46082 WHICH IS STILL HOLDING STRONG WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GULF
THROUGH THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FT HAVE QUICKLY
DECREASED IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS GALE FORCE FRONT AND WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 FT BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO
27 KTS) THROUGH MANY OF THE CHANNELS WILL DROP DOWN TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS LARGELY DROPPING OFF TO MATCH. LAST HOLDOUTS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE INNER CHANNELS FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD AS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT IN THE INTERIOR CHANNELS WILL DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING
BETWEEN 15 TO 18 FT DROP TO AROUND 10 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...STJ
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