948
FXAK67 PAJK 241444
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEAVING TO
MORE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAINY WEATHER DIMINISHES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER/DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE, WHICH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY, AS WELL. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2,500 FT OF THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES
CANADIAN BORDER-CROSSING HIGHWAYS AS SNOW LEVELS, AIR
TEMPERATURES, AND SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THAT TO
HAPPEN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESSIVELY GET LIGHTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX MORE OVER TIME.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
THE LONG TERM
FORECAST BEGINS WITH QUIETER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A DIMINISHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF, IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON, WILL GIVE DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WHILE CHANCES WON'T COMPLETELY GO AWAY FOR SOME
AREAS OF SE, LESS PRECIP AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THESE DIMINISHING CHANCES WILL COME THANKS TO EXPECTED NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
AIR, WHICH MAY GIVE SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. FOR YOU SNOW FANS, THERE IS A CATCH - THE
COOLER AIR THAT MIGHT GIVE SNOW IS ALSO DRIER, WHICH GIVES
DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. SO WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW
DURING THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY, THE WINDOW IS RELATIVELY SMALL
BECAUSE THE VERY PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS
ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS BRINGING LOWERING POPS. EITHER WAY, THIS
FORECASTER IS EXCITED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SNOW, EVEN
THOUGH IT'S A SMALL CHANCE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
THE GULF OF ALASKA WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SWING BACK TO MORE OF
AN ONSHORE PATTERN THAT WOULD GIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH GIVES
RAINY WEATHER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
VARYING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP,
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE SEEING A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
SITTING RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD, CIGS
DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH EVEN LOWER SCATTERED LAYERS, LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN AND LOWERS VIS, AND WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY UP TO 20
KTS. THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR,
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND CIGS AOB 1500 FT. VIS
THROUGH THE NIGHT HAS LARGELY STAYED ABOVE 6 SM, BUT WILL
PERIODICALLY DROP TO AROUND 4 SM WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS BRINGING
HIGHER RAIN RATES AND LOWER CLOUD LAYERS. GUSTY WINDS IN SKAGWAY,
HAINES, AND JUNEAU HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT OVERALL
WINDS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE RELATIVELY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
FRIDAY, WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING FOR CONTINUOUS
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PUSHING INTO THE
PANHANDLE. BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH PREVAILING LOWERED CONDITIONS LOOK
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/OUTER COASTAL WATERS): THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, GIVING WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. FOR THE SE GULF, POST-FRONTAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE WINDS TO BETWEEN AROUND 20 TO 30 KT
STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK-WEEK. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT & 6 TO 10 FT
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK-WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY
GIVING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. FOR
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, POST-FRONTAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHTEN UP
TO MAINLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KT & BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
SOME MORE. BY SUNDAY MORNING, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA, WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS TO MAINLY
BETWEEN AROUND 15 TO 25 KT STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEXT WORK-WEEK. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO
5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT & 3 TO 6 FT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORK-WEEK. SEAS HIGHER NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...JLC
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