800
FXAK67 PAJK 242306
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
TO WEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER SE WILL TEND TOWARDS MORE OF AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT, AND AS SUCH, DECREASED POPS.
- A TROUBLESOME FEATURE FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE SHOWERS ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THAT INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH STORM CELL.
- COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTH COULD SUPPORT SNOW MIXED INTO THE RAIN
THIS WEEKEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LOOKING LIKELY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA WITH SHOWERS MOVING NNW-N. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT BEGIN SUBSIDE AS THE SOUTHERN END
DRIFTS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. A LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS
FORMING UNDER AN UPPER FEATURE AND THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GRADIENTS ARE CONTINUING TO RELAX AS AS SUCH WINDS ARE DECREASING
AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
EXCEPTION FOR GUSTS NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
COOLER AIR STARTING WORK WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SNOW
LEVELS IN THE UPPER 2000S TO LOW 3000 FT RANGE, AND LOWERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO SHOULD SEE THE LEVELS ON MOUNTAINS CREEPING
DOWN THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN THE JUNEAU AREA COULD SEE
SNOW ON THE TERRAIN BETWEEN THE EAGLECREST BASE AND THE TRAM
LEVEL.
LONG TERM.../ SUNDAY TO NEXT WEEKEND /
THE QUIETER WEATHER
LINGERS INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL
START WITH SOME LOW-END POPS DUE TO A WEAKENING LOW IN THE GULF
THAT COULD SWING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FARTHER
INLAND YOU ARE, THE LOWER YOUR CHANCES ARE FOR SEEING ANY PRECIP.
AND WITH THE COOLER AIR TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE,
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL FOR
THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. BUT BY MIDDAY, MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE MIXING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
AT SEA LEVEL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS
BRINGING LOWERED POPS. SO LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT SEA LEVEL, MORE A CHUNKY RAIN, IF WE SEE THE SNOW DOWN TO SEA
LEVEL.
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
SWINGS TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL USHER IN INCREASING POPS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF JUST RAIN AND LOWERED CHANCES OF THAT SNOW
MIX.
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE RAINY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
A FEW ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA ARE EXPECTED. AS OF NOW, THESE SYSTEMS ARE LOOKING TO
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS (35+ KTS) WITH STORM FORCE (50+ KTS) WIND
GUSTS. LAND WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 50+ MPH AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, MODERATE TO HEAVY WOULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AOA
1500FT AND VISBYS 3 TO 6 STATUE MILES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE GULF AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE AREA.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, SIMILAR
TRENDS TO YESTERDAY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, GENERAL
MVFR TO LOW END VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS AOB
4000FT, ISOLATED AREAS WILL REACH DOWN INTO IFR CIGS AOB 1000FT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY, CIGS AOA 2500FT TO UPPER END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING UP AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS TO 25KTS, GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL):
AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING SOUTHWEST
SWELL OF 8-13FT AT 10-12 SECONDS, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES
ALONG THE COAST OF THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO. THESE WIND WAVES ARE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW, WITH THE LOW CENTER
JUST OFF SHORE FROM THE KENAI. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH, BECOMING MORE FOCUSED AROUND SWELL, AND WINDS TO RELAX
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SWELL OF 6-10FT OUT OF THE WSW
BY SATURDAY MORNING, SOUTHEAST WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COAST AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, SO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE HORIZON
AND BE READY FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY BUILDING
CLOUDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY WITH OUR
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALE FORCE,
TO GALE FORCE, ALONG PRINCE OF WALES AND DIXON ENTRANCE.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN
OVER THE PREVIOUS 5 DAYS, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO OFFSHORE FLOW
IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SUNDAY. BY-AND-
LARGE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21
KNOTS) WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FORECASTED. AS OF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE COAST, KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE HORIZON AND BE READY FOR
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
BUILDING CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH FROM HAIDA GWAII WITH NEAR-GALES, TO GALE FORCE, LIKELY IN
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...PARK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page