102
FXAK67 PAJK 250556
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
UPDATE
FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION UPDATE
GENERALLY MVFR BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALASKA PANHANDLE AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. MVFR CATEGORY GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS TO VFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULFAK THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CROSSING SE ALASKA INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS
DO HINT AT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO BOTTOM END MIDLEVEL
INSTABILITY (REALLY SKINNY CAPE 1KFT AGL TO 8KFT FOR THE WEATHER
NERDS) TO WHERE WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW BRIEF, WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULFAK UP TO NEAR THE OUTER
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED...IF ANY. ALSO, THE WEAKELY FORCED WIND FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TO
WEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER SE WILL TEND TOWARDS MORE OF AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT, AND AS
SUCH, DECREASED POPS.
- A TROUBLESOME FEATURE FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE SHOWERS ALONG THE
PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THAT INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH STORM CELL.
- COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTH COULD SUPPORT SNOW MIXED INTO THE RAIN
THIS WEEKEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LOOKING LIKELY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA WITH SHOWERS MOVING NNW-N. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT BEGIN SUBSIDE AS THE SOUTHERN END
DRIFTS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. A LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS FORMING
UNDER AN UPPER FEATURE AND THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
GRADIENTS ARE CONTINUING TO RELAX AS AS SUCH WINDS ARE DECREASING
AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
EXCEPTION FOR GUSTS NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
COOLER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE UPPER 2000S TO LOW 3000 FT RANGE, AND
LOWERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO SHOULD SEE THE LEVELS ON MOUNTAINS
CREEPING DOWN THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN THE JUNEAU AREA WE
COULD SEE SNOW ON THE TERRAIN BETWEEN THE EAGLECREST BASE AND THE
TRAM LEVEL.
LONG TERM.../ SUNDAY TO NEXT WEEKEND /
THE QUIETER WEATHER
LINGERS INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL START
WITH SOME LOW-END POPS DUE TO A WEAKENING LOW IN THE GULF THAT COULD
SWING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FARTHER INLAND YOU ARE,
THE LOWER YOUR CHANCES ARE FOR SEEING ANY PRECIP. AND WITH THE
COOLER AIR TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE, SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL FOR THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. BUT BY MIDDAY, MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE MIXING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SEA LEVEL FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS
BRINGING LOWERED POPS. SO LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT SEA LEVEL, MORE A CHUNKY RAIN, IF WE SEE THE SNOW DOWN TO SEA
LEVEL.
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
SWINGS TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL USHER IN INCREASING POPS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF JUST RAIN AND LOWERED CHANCES OF THAT SNOW MIX.
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE RAINY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
A FEW ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA ARE EXPECTED. AS OF NOW, THESE SYSTEMS ARE LOOKING TO
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS (35+ KTS) WITH STORM FORCE (50+ KTS) WIND
GUSTS. LAND WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 50+ MPH AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, MODERATE TO HEAVY WOULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL): AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 8-13FT AT 10-12
SECONDS, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO. THESE WIND WAVES ARE IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW, WITH THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF SHORE FROM
THE KENAI. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED AROUND SWELL, AND WINDS TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS SWELL OF 6-10FT OUT OF THE WSW BY SATURDAY
MORNING, SOUTHEAST WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE COAST AND INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, SO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE HORIZON AND BE READY FOR
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY BUILDING CLOUDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALE FORCE, TO GALE FORCE,
ALONG PRINCE OF WALES AND DIXON ENTRANCE.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 5 DAYS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY TO OFFSHORE FLOW IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH SUNDAY. BY-AND-LARGE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KNOTS) WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
FORECASTED. AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PUSHING
INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE COAST, KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE
HORIZON AND BE READY FOR GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY BUILDING CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH FROM HAIDA GWAII WITH NEAR-GALES, TO GALE FORCE, LIKELY IN
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION UPDATE...GARMON
MARINE...PARK
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