813
FXAK67 PAJK 251414
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
614 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
TO WEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER SE WILL TEND TOWARDS MORE OF AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT,
AND AS SUCH, DECREASED POPS.
- A TROUBLESOME FEATURE FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE SHOWERS ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THAT INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH STORM CELL.
- COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTH COULD SUPPORT SNOW MIXED INTO THE RAIN THIS
WEEKEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LOOKING LIKELY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS
DRIFTING ESE, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING UP THE EASTERN
PORTION, RESULTING IN SHOWERS FOR THE PANHANDLE. EXPECTING TO SEE
POPS DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE DAY TODAY AS DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SOUTH. WITH RELAXING GRADIENTS AND DECREASING
WINDS, AND CLEARING SKIES, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, WITH
PLENTY OF VORTICITY ADVECTION, EXPECTED FOG COULD VERY WELL BE A
LOW STRATUS DECK.
LOOKING TO SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP FROM 2000-2500 FT CURRENTLY TO
BELOW 1000 FT FROM JUNEAU UP TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME IN HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND THE HIGHWAYS, IF A SHOWER DOES
DEVELOP, PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A MIX MUCH FURTHER DOWN IN
ELEVATION THAN PREVIOUSLY.
LONG TERM.../ SUNDAY TO NEXT WEEKEND /
THE QUIETER WEATHER
LINGERS INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL START
WITH SOME LOW-END POPS DUE TO A WEAKENING LOW IN THE GULF THAT COULD
SWING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FARTHER INLAND YOU ARE,
THE LOWER YOUR CHANCES ARE FOR SEEING ANY PRECIP. AND WITH THE
COOLER AIR TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE, SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL FOR THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. BUT BY MIDDAY, MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE MIXING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SEA LEVEL FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS
BRINGING LOWERED POPS. SO LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT SEA LEVEL, MORE A CHUNKY RAIN, IF WE SEE THE SNOW DOWN TO SEA
LEVEL.
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
SWINGS TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL USHER IN INCREASING POPS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF JUST RAIN AND LOWERED CHANCES OF THAT SNOW MIX.
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE RAINY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
A FEW ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA ARE EXPECTED. AS OF NOW, THESE SYSTEMS ARE LOOKING TO
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS (35+ KTS) WITH STORM FORCE (50+ KTS) WIND
GUSTS. LAND WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 50+ MPH AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, MODERATE TO HEAVY WOULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
GENERALLY, ON AVERAGE, AROUND
MVFR CATEGORY FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE PANHANDLE UNTIL THEY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS.
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
REMAIN RATHER RELAXED, AND NO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURFACES WILL BE
NEARBY. THEREFORE, SFC WINDS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
OUTSIDE WATERS TODAY, AS AN UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND
SUPPORTING DYNAMIC ALOFT LOOK TO HAVE MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
DEVELOP. LOOKING ON SATELLITE, ONE NEAR CAPE SPENCER AND ONE NEAR
CAPE EDGECOMBE IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN TANDEM, WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PARTICULAR MESOSCALE SYSTEM TO
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR, HOWEVER, WITHIN THESE SYSTEMS, ERRATIC
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT GUST FACTORS ARE EXPECTED.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CHATHAM STRAIT, VERY SIMILAR STORY TO THE
OUTSIDE WATERS. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE INSIDE WATERS, MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE MARINE WATERS TONIGHT, SEE THE SHORT TERM FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC
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