759
FXAK67 PAJK 251828 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1028 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MID MORNING UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE OF NUISANCE WEATHER THAN
IMPACTFUL, BRINGING INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUD DECKS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATING STRONGEST MARINE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH, CURRENTLY OUT OF CROSS SOUND FROM CAPE
SPENCER TO FAIR FAIRWEATHER UP TO 20KTS AS LOCALIZED MESOLOW
PUSHES INLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY PARTICULAR MESOSCALE SYSTEM TO
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR, HOWEVER, WITHIN THESE SYSTEMS, ERRATIC
INCREASED WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, INNER CHANNEL AND
COASTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACH INTO THE
40S, WITH OVERLAND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. SEE PREV DISCUSSION
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 2000FT AND PREVAILING
6 STATUE MILE VISIBILITIES OR BETTER THIS MORNING AS A BROAD OPEN
LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE GULF, SENDING WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND MESOLOWS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM S TO N. OVER
ARCHING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MVFR TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 2500FT, DECREASING ONCE MORE TO
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO LOW END VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AGAIN BY 15 TO 18Z SUNDAY WITH CIGS
AOA 2500FT TO UPPER END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH RAIN CHANCES
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FROM E TO W.
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AROUND 10KTS, DECREASING TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 614 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW OR WET SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FALLING AT WHITE PASS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, ACCUMULATING AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE UPCOMING 12
HOUR PERIOD. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 FEET
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. HAINES HIGHWAY SNOWFALL TO REMAIN
MAINLY FALLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER AT ELEVATION.
SNOW LEVELS FALLING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAINY WEATHER DIMINISHES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER/DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
- RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT /
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH
SHOWERS MOVING NNW-N. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT BEGIN SUBSIDE AS THE SOUTHERN END DRIFTS A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST. A LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS FORMING UNDER AN UPPER FEATURE
AND THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GRADIENTS ARE CONTINUING TO RELAX AS AS SUCH WINDS ARE DECREASING
AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
EXCEPTION FOR GUSTS NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
COOLER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE UPPER 2000S TO LOW 3000 FT RANGE, AND
LOWERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO SHOULD SEE THE LEVELS ON MOUNTAINS
CREEPING DOWN THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN THE JUNEAU AREA
WE COULD SEE SNOW ON THE TERRAIN BETWEEN THE EAGLECREST BASE AND
THE TRAM LEVEL.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH QUIETER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
A DIMINISHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF, IN ADDITION TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE IN THE YUKON, WILL GIVE DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WHILE CHANCES WON'T COMPLETELY
GO AWAY FOR SOME AREAS OF SE, LESS PRECIP AND MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THESE DIMINISHING CHANCES WILL COME THANKS TO EXPECTED NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
AIR, WHICH MAY GIVE SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. FOR YOU SNOW FANS, THERE IS A CATCH - THE
COOLER AIR THAT MIGHT GIVE SNOW IS ALSO DRIER, WHICH GIVES
DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. SO WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW
DURING THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY, THE WINDOW IS RELATIVELY SMALL
BECAUSE THE VERY PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO SEA LEVEL IS
ALSO THE PATTERN THAT IS BRINGING LOWERING POPS. EITHER WAY, THIS
FORECASTER IS EXCITED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SNOW, EVEN
THOUGH IT'S A SMALL CHANCE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS.
THE GULF OF ALASKA WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SWING BACK TO MORE OF
AN ONSHORE PATTERN THAT WOULD GIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH GIVES
RAINY WEATHER.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS): FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
OUTSIDE WATERS TODAY, AS AN UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND
SUPPORTING DYNAMIC ALOFT LOOK TO HAVE MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
DEVELOP. LOOKING ON SATELLITE, ONE NEAR CAPE SPENCER AND ONE NEAR
CAPE EDGECOMBE IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN TANDEM, WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PARTICULAR MESOSCALE SYSTEM TO LAST
MORE THAN AN HOUR, HOWEVER, WITHIN THESE SYSTEMS, ERRATIC WINDS
AND SIGNIFICANT GUST FACTORS ARE EXPECTED.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CHATHAM STRAIT, VERY SIMILAR STORY TO THE
OUTSIDE WATERS. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE INSIDE WATERS, MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE MARINE WATERS TONIGHT, SEE THE SHORT TERM FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC
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