767
FXAK67 PAJK 252252
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
252 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW PATTERN OVER SE LEANS
MORE TOWARDS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT, AND AS SUCH, DECREASED
POPS.
- A TROUBLESOME FEATURE FROM THIS PATTERN IS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTTING THE GULF AND PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. UNDER THESE
SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, LOWERED CLOUD DECKS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY.
- COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTH COULD SUPPORT SNOW MIXED INTO THE RAIN
THIS WEEKEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW OF THIS HAPPENING LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
- LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LOOKING LIKELY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
THESE STORM SYSTEMS WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE GULF IS THE BIG
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS IT SPINS, SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER GULF AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS DRIFT
OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH. LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT, THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS. ALSO, WEAK
OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW, OR CHUNKY RAIN,
TO MIX INTO THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF ICY
STRAIT.
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH SUBSIDING WAVES IN
THE GULF.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SWINGS BACK TO A MORE ONSHORE
PATTERN, SO EXPECTING POPS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH. BUT WITH THE STILL WEAK OUTFLOW, STILL SOME LOW POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH
OF ICY STRAIT.
LONG TERM
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF
THE FIRST OF MANY STRONGER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE
FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH REACHING THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35+ KTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND
NORTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES 17 TO 27 KTS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS. CONFIDENCE ON THE TUESDAY SYSTEM REMAINS LOW AS BOTH
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SYSTEM REACHES THE GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHER AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN GREATER THAN 80% ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. STARTING
WEDNESDAY, A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF SENDS A FRONT TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE. THEN A REINFORCING SECONDARY LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS WITH A
STRONGER FRONT TO START THURSDAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM, MARINE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO BRING GALE FORCE OF 40 KTS OR GREATER ALONG
THE GULF. LAND WINDS DURING THIS MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM ARE
LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LAND WINDS GUSTS TO REACH 50 TO 60 MPH. STAY TUNED AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 2000FT AND PREVAILING
6 STATUE MILE VISIBILITIES AS A BROAD LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS THE N PACIFIC, SENDING WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM S TO N. OVER ARCHING
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 1500FT, DECREASING ONCE MORE TO
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO LOW END VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AGAIN BY 15 TO
18Z SUNDAY TO UPPER END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH RAIN CHANCES
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM
E TO W ACROSS THE PANHANDLE..
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AROUND 10KTS, DECREASING TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF/COASTAL WATERS):
CURRENT SITREP ALONG OUR COAST IS WSW SWELL OF 10-12FT FOCUSED
NEAR 8 TO 12 SECONDS WITH WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES;
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR CROSS SOUND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AND CHALLENGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS NEAR ANY BUILDING CLOUDS. A RELATIVE LULL IN MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF TRANSITS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND. ALONG OUR COAST WINDS OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH WSW SWELL CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH, REACHING 5 TO 8 FT ALONG OUR COAST. MONDAY EVENING A
GALE FORCE LOW LIFTS NORTH OFFSHORE FROM HAIDA GWAII, IMPACTING
DIXON ENTRANCE AND PRINCE OF WALES COAST. UNCERTAINTY PLAGUES THIS
SYSTEM WITH LOW TRACK, STRENGTH, AND RESULTING MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS; CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR
DIXON.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
AS OF SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR
MOST OBSERVATIONS, WITH ONLY SCULL ISLAND REPORTING STRONG BREEZES
OUT OF THE EAST. MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS; KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE HORIZON FOR BUILDING
CLOUDS, ANTICIPATE GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AROUND THESE CELLS.
TONIGHT, CONCERNS SHIFT TO AREAS OF FOG INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. CLARENCE STRAIT
REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST, WITH OUR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING
NORTHERLY WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES. AS A GALE FORCE LOW LIFTS
SUNDAY EVENING, WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FOR CLARENCE, LIKELY
REACHING STRONG BREEZES BY MONDAY, BECOMING NEAR-GALES BY TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
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