147
FXAK67 PAJK 241508
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
MOST AREAS.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR HAINES FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- OFFSHORE FLOW IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES TO MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
A WEAKENING LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO START THE WEEK. A MAJORITY OF THE OUTER
COAST REMAINS WARM ENOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO JUST SEE RAIN,
HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST COAST UP TO AROUND YAKUTAT HAS SEEN SNOW
SHOWERS AT SEA LEVEL WITH THE AIRPORT THERE REPORTING VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES. WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT THERE,
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES TO THE AREA. HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH IF SHOWERS BEGIN TO TRAIN
OVER THE AREA MORE FREQUENTLY. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
HAINES AREA AS SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING CONTINUOUSLY SINCE AROUND
MIDNIGHT, WITH VISIBILITIES AT THE AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/4
MILE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR, SKAGWAY HAS STAYED SLIGHTLY WARMER AND
DRIER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FROM NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, LIKELY LIMITING SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THE SURFACE. FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, SOME
SNOW MIXING IN AT SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERALL A WET AND COOL START TO THE WEEK. FOR MORE ON WHAT TO
EXPECT FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME NAILING
DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM. RIGHT NOW, FORECAST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE SPLIT INTO
TWO CAMPS WITH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EURO AND CANADIAN COMING TOGETHER FOR A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.
THE OTHER CAMP IS THE GFS AND GEFS. THE EURO/CANADIAN SOLUTION
LOOKS TO BRING A LOW FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS TO KEEP THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A DRY OUTFLOW SITUATION. HEADED INTO
WEDNESDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA
BECOMES THE DOMINANT PATTERN FOR SE AK. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN MODELS ON THIS SOLUTION SO DETAILS COULD
CHANGE REGARDING EXACTLY WHAT LOCATIONS DRY OUT. BY THE TIME WE
GET TO THURSDAY, MODELS LOOK TO COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT THAT
OUTFLOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FIRMLY ESTABLISHES
CONTROL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL IN LOCATIONS
THAT ARE NOT USUALLY WINDY DURING OUTFLOW EVENTS WHILE PLACES LIKE
CROSS SOUND, LYNN CANAL, TAKU INLET, AND THE STIKINE RIVER DELTA
LOOK TO SEE WINDS INCREASE. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA FOR OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA BUT COULD
TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION THAT THIS LOW
SETS UP AROUND, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COULD RANGE FROM
REMAINING DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE, POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT, OR JUST A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IF THE SYSTEM IS
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MIX OUT THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
AND BRING MOSTLY JUST RAIN. WITH THE DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODELS, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
FOR UPDATES AND CHANGES.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR FOR THE
SEAK PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, KEEPING ON-SHORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WORST
FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN NEAR YAKUTAT AND HAINES,
WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING VISBYS AT LAST AS 1/4SM AT
TIMES. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, GENERAL LOW-END VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AOA 3500FT, OUTSIDE OF KETCHIKAN
WHICH HAS SEEN PERSISTENT CIGS AROUND 500 TO 1000FT.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VISBYS DOWN
TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN SHOWERS. WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR HAINES AS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH CIGS
AOB 1500FT AND VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2SM WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS OR ICING CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LINGERING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS STILL PRODUCING
NEAR 20 KT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AND 15 TO
20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN GULF . THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GULF LOW DIMINISHES AWAY. AS A NEW LOW
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, GULF WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SE AND THEN E BY TUESDAY AND WILL START
INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KT IN THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. SEAS
MAINLY DOMINATED BY SW SWELL OF AROUND 6 TO 7 FT (WITH A PERIOD OF
12 TO 14 SEC) AT THE MOMENT WITH WIND WAVE ON TOP OF THAT GIVING
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DOWN TO 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SW SWELL
SUBSIDES. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL START BUILDING AGAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE INCREASING SE WINDS BEGIN TO BUILD WAVES
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE SEAS COULD
REACH 10 TO 12 FT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF.
INSIDE: WIND DIRECTIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SE AND E THROUGH THE
INNER CHANNELS THIS MONDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS
NORTH/SOUTH CHANNELS NORTH OF ICY STRAIT WHICH ARE HAVE CONTINUED
TO FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION MID
DAY MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
STAY LIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GENERAL SWITCH TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY WIND DRIVEN WAVES UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT AND WILL GENERALLY STAY THAT HEIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS SW SWELL UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ319.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
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