403
FXAK67 PAJK 251819 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
919 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
- A LOW TRACKING TOWARD HAIDA GWAII TUESDAY WILL TURN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- OFFSHORE FLOW IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES TO MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SPORADIC WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL REMAINED OUT OF THE NORTH THOUGH SLACKENING IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING MEANING
MANY AREAS STAYED RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR ACTUALLY WARMED
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 40.
DRY COOL AIR FROM THE INTERIOR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE INNER
CHANNELS AS A NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS DUE TO A LOW MOVING
INTO DIXON ENTRANCE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SPREADING UP TO
SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES, HOWEVER IT WILL
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND DIXON
ENTRANCE. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO UPWARDS OF 17 FT
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW DETERIORATES AND PUSHES EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
WITH THE SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OUTFLOW PATTERN, NORTHERLY AND
EASTERLY INTERIOR PASSES WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE ON WHAT
TO EXPECT FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORY WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE SOUTHEAST ALASKA’S WEATHER, WITH
A DECAYING LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF HELPING TO PULL COLD DRY
ARCTIC AIR FROM THE INTERIOR. TRANSLATING TO IMPACTS, AS
PRECIPITATION PRECIPITOUSLY DECREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY, MULTIPLE DAYS OF OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE LYNN CANAL AND WEST-EAST INLETS LIKE
THE TAKU, STIKINE AND THE UNUK. CAN’T FORGET ABOUT OUR FRIENDS UP
IN YAKUTAT, WHERE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS TO DISENCHANTMENT BAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REFLECTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
THINKING OF FREEZING SPRAY, COASTAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 40S WITH THE INSIDE IN THE LOW 40S; AREAS NEAR MAJOR
GLACIAL FED RIVERS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. THESE WATER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH FORECASTED AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MEAN
LIMITED FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS WITH MOST CONCERN IN THE UPPER
ECHELONS OF LYNN CANAL AND MAJOR RIVER INLETS. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INSIDE, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FT FOR LYNN CANAL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY A STOUT STORM FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC COULD TAP INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE, PUSHING THIS PLUME,
AND A GALE FORCE FRONT, TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BY THE WEEKEND. IF
COLD AIR CAN REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG SELECT AREAS OF THE INSIDE, WE
COULD SEE IMPACTFUL SNOW IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/ MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. THE EXPECTION IS HAINES AND THE CHILKAT VALLEY WHERE
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO 2
MILES AT TIMES. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. CONCERN FOR LOWER
VIS AND CEILINGS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A LOW
NEAR HAIDA GWAII SENDS A FRONT WITH RAIN INTO THAT AREA. AREAS
FROM AROUND SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD MAY SEE VIS DROP TO 5 YO 6
MILES AND CEILINGS DROP TO 1500 TO 2500 FT STARTING AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREAS AROUND KUPREANOF AND KUIU ISLANDS MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN CEILING AND VIS AS WELL TUESDAY NIGHT IF THE
RAINFALL MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT LOW WEAKENS.
NOT MUCH WIND AROUND EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN
LOCALIZED AREAS (POINT COUVERDEN, AND CAPE DECISION). THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS START UP IN THE
NORTH DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE OUTFLOW AND SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM
THE E AND SE START UP IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE FRONT. THE SOUTH IN
PARTICULAR WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO DEAL WITH AS WELL
TODAY WITH E WIND TO 30 TO 40 KT AT 2000 ASL. SO SOME SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS, BUT THE NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE NORTH ARE LIKELY TO LINGER.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: WEAKENING LOW SW OF YAKUTAT IS BRINGING MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS TO THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR
EASTERLY WINDS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO EASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE NE GULF LOW WEAKENS AND A
STRONGER LOW HEADS TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING EAST OF 140W AND SOUTH OF 57N TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GALES
TO 40 KT LIKELY OUT OF DIXON ENTRANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL THEN START TO DECREASE
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BELOW 25 KT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 6 FT WITH A DIMINISHING SW
SWELL OF AROUND 4 TO 5 FT (PERIOD OF AROUND 10 SEC). SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THEY
START BUILDING TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE LOW HEADING TO HAIDA
GWAII KICKING UP MORE WIND WAVES FROM A SE DIRECTION. A CANADIAN
BUOY IN HECATE STRAIT IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS UPWARDS OF 8 FT AS
OF 4AM. EXPECT THE SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE: GENERALLY SOUTH TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY MORNING.
EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE YOUNG BAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 25
KT, AND LYNN CANAL. NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL HAVE WEAKENED,
BUT THE GRADIENT NEVER FLIPPED AND IS NOW STRENGTHENING ONCE
MORE. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS A LOW STARTS TO APPROACH THE HAIDA GWAII AND DIXON
ENTRANCE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE YUKON. AT
THAT POINT TAKU INLET, AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS WILL INCREASE 20
TO 25 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH 30 KT IN LYNN CANAL BY WED
NIGHT. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL LIKELY STAY SE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT ONCE THE LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII STARTS WEAKENING. SEAS MAINLY
AROUND 3 TO 4 FT TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND THAT HEIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. OUTFLOW AREAS MAY SEE SEAS INCREASE TO 5
FT TUESDAY NIGHT ONCE THE WINDS START INCREASING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-031-036-642>644-651-652-663-664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...STJ
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