562
FXAK67 PAJK 260101
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
- OFFSHORE FLOW IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES TO MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE.
- A DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST (YAKUTAT, ELFIN
COVE, AND PELICAN).
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE AIR FOR MUCH OF SE AK. WHILE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A FRONT MOVES IN, DRIER
CONDITIONS HAVE ARRIVED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT'S DEPARTURE ON WEDNESDAY, THESE DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD, BRINGING WITH THEM A WELCOME BREAK IN THE
WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SYSTEM
AFTER SYSTEM INTO THE PANHANDLE, HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN, WITH SYSTEMS
TEMPORARILY BEING REDIRECTED AWAY FROM SE AK. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STALL OUT AND
DISINTEGRATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
REACHING AS FAR AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT THROUGH THEN. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL FORM TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS SKIES IN THESE AREAS
BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS CHANCES OF POP DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THANKSGIVING DAY ITSELF WILL BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT AND PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST (PELICAN
AND ELFIN COVE) WHERE CHANCES OF POP INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT SIDESWIPES THESE AREAS, THOUGH
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM REACHING THE REST OF SE AK.
CLEARER SKIES AND SAID OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO JOIN FORCES TO
CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS (WHICH LOOK TO BE WEAKER THAN
ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY), ALONGSIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF POP FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST AND YAKUTAT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
LONG TERM
BY FRIDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SETUP TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK; THE FIRST BEING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB REACHING KODIAK BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE A GALE FORCE FRONT AND SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE
SECOND FEATURE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, AN EXTENSIVE STORM
FORCE LOW, WILL TAP INTO EQUATORIAL MOISTURE, WITH THE PARENT
500MB LOW BEGINNING TO STEER A WEAK-TO-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST BY SUNDAY AND ADDITIONAL FRONTS. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID-RANGE HAS BEEN BREAK DOWN OF
OUTFLOW AND TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS ALLOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE POINTS IN QUESTION
HAVE DRASTIC IMPLICATIONS TO PRECIP TYPE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE, WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
COMMUNITIES OUTSIDE OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO SEE HOW
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN BECOME AND REASSESSING TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHERE FREEZING LEVELS LOOK TO
RISE ABOVE 3,000FT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DENSE AND WET SNOW THIS
WEEKEND IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED, BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL BY MONDAY WHICH COULD EXACERBATE RIVER RESPONSE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGION. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
TO SUM UP, CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
WET/HEAVY SNOW THAT IMPACTS HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE
A FRONTAL BAND FROM A LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII IS LOWERING CEILINGS TO
AROUND 3000 FT AT TIMES. CONCERN FOR LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS
TONIGHT IS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A LOW NEAR HAIDA
GWAII SENDS A FRONT WITH RAIN INTO THAT AREA. AREAS FROM AROUND
SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD MAY SEE VIS DROP TO 5 TO 6 MILES AND
CEILINGS DROP TO 1500 TO 2500 FT AT TIMES. AREAS AROUND KUPREANOF
AND KUIU ISLANDS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF DROPS IN CEILING AND VIS AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE RAINFALL MAKES IT THAT FAR
NORTH BUT THE CHANCE IS ONLY 30 PERCENT AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT LOW WEAKENS. THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MAINLY STAY VFR WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONDITIONS, BUT I CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN ISOLATED WIND SHELTERED AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED
DROPS IN CEILINGS AND VIS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE STARTED UP IN
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE OUTFLOW. GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE BEING OBSERVED AT SKAGWAY, LYNN CANAL, TAKU INLET AND A
FEW OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT AT GROUND LEVEL
BEFORE THE LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE E AND SE ARE ALSO
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES). THE GREATER CONCERN DOWN THERE IS THE
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH E WIND TO 30 TO 40 KT AT 2000 ASL. SO SOME
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SOME
PILOT REPORTS OF TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY OF KETCHIKAN BELOW
3000 FT WHICH COULD CONTINUING TO BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WELL. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WAVEHEIGHTS SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING FROM 9-14 FT TO 7-9 FEET, AS A DECAYING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS REPLACED BY STRENGTHENING
OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE (RELATIVELY) ON THE
LOWER SIDE, AND SO WHILE STRONGER PLUMES OF WIND MAY REACH INTO
THE GULF, EXPECT THESE TO BE RELATIVELY CONFINED IN NATURE. WINDS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM W TO E BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE SLIDING NORTHWARD
INSIDE WATERS: STRENGTHENING OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH TAKU INLET, AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH 30 KT IN LYNN CANAL BY WED
NIGHT. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL EXPERIENCE SHARPLY VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW BATTLES THE OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR PREVAILING FLOW DIRECTION UNTIL SAID LOW NEAR HAIDA
GWAII STARTS WEAKENING. SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THOUGH OUTFLOW AREAS AND LYNN CANAL WILL SEE SEAS OF 5
FT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WEAKEN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GOES MORE PARALLEL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-035-036-642>644-651-652-
663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS
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