969
FXAK67 PAJK 260655
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2025
UPDATE...TO ADD THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
- OFFSHORE FLOW IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES TO MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE.
- A DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST (YAKUTAT, ELFIN
COVE, AND PELICAN).
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE AIR FOR MUCH OF SE AK. WHILE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A FRONT MOVES IN, DRIER
CONDITIONS HAVE ARRIVED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT'S DEPARTURE ON WEDNESDAY, THESE DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD, BRINGING WITH THEM A WELCOME BREAK IN THE
WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SYSTEM
AFTER SYSTEM INTO THE PANHANDLE, HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN, WITH SYSTEMS
TEMPORARILY BEING REDIRECTED AWAY FROM SE AK. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STALL OUT AND
DISINTEGRATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
REACHING AS FAR AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT THROUGH THEN. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL FORM TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS SKIES IN THESE AREAS
BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS CHANCES OF POP DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THANKSGIVING DAY ITSELF WILL BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT AND PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST (PELICAN
AND ELFIN COVE) WHERE CHANCES OF POP INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT SIDESWIPES THESE AREAS, THOUGH
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM REACHING THE REST OF SE AK.
CLEARER SKIES AND SAID OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO JOIN FORCES TO
CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS (WHICH LOOK TO BE WEAKER THAN
ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY), ALONGSIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF POP FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST AND YAKUTAT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
LONG TERM
BY FRIDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SETUP TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK; THE FIRST BEING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB REACHING KODIAK BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE A GALE FORCE FRONT AND SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE
SECOND FEATURE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, AN EXTENSIVE STORM
FORCE LOW, WILL TAP INTO EQUATORIAL MOISTURE, WITH THE PARENT
500MB LOW BEGINNING TO STEER A WEAK-TO-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST BY SUNDAY AND ADDITIONAL FRONTS. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID-RANGE HAS BEEN BREAK DOWN OF
OUTFLOW AND TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS ALLOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE POINTS IN QUESTION
HAVE DRASTIC IMPLICATIONS TO PRECIP TYPE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE, WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
COMMUNITIES OUTSIDE OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO SEE HOW
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN BECOME AND REASSESSING TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHERE FREEZING LEVELS LOOK TO
RISE ABOVE 3,000FT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DENSE AND WET SNOW THIS
WEEKEND IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED, BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL BY MONDAY WHICH COULD EXACERBATE RIVER RESPONSE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGION. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
TO SUM UP, CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
WET/HEAVY SNOW THAT IMPACTS HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY/
FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
PANHANDLE, CIG & VIS CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FG
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY BRING VISS & CIGS DOWN TO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY RANGE. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SFC WINDS FROM A
TIGHTENING NORTH TO SOUTH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN AREA OF
HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH & LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
MAKE THINGS A BIT BREEZY FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE,
PARTICULARLY AREAS AROUND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, LIKE THE PAGY &
PAHN AREAS. THIS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW EVENT IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDES WHEN COMPARED TO MANY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IT WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, MOVING
OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONTINUALLY WEAKENING. IT WILL KEEP CIGS LOWERED INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY & KEEP SFC WINDS INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR PAKT &
PAKW VIA ITS ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR THE SOUTH,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WEAKENS & MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
LLWS MAGNITUDES OF UP TO AROUND 30 KT OUT OF A GENERALLY EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION CENTERED UP AT AROUND 2 KFT ARE IN
STORE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS LIKE PAKT &
PAKW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WAVEHEIGHTS SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING FROM 9-14 FT TO 7-9 FEET, AS A
DECAYING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS REPLACED BY
STRENGTHENING OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
(RELATIVELY) ON THE LOWER SIDE, AND SO WHILE STRONGER PLUMES OF
WIND MAY REACH INTO THE GULF, EXPECT THESE TO BE RELATIVELY
CONFINED IN NATURE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM W TO E BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BEFORE SLIDING NORTHWARD
INSIDE WATERS: STRENGTHENING OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH TAKU INLET, AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH 30 KT IN LYNN CANAL BY WED
NIGHT. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL EXPERIENCE SHARPLY VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW BATTLES THE OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR PREVAILING FLOW DIRECTION UNTIL SAID LOW NEAR HAIDA
GWAII STARTS WEAKENING. SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THOUGH OUTFLOW AREAS AND LYNN CANAL WILL SEE SEAS OF 5
FT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WEAKEN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GOES MORE PARALLEL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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