199
FXAK67 PAJK 261504
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
- OFFSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING
SKIES TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
- A DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NE GULF COAST (YAKUTAT, ELFIN COVE, AND
PELICAN) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT AS THE
FORECAST STAYS LARGELY ON TRACK. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO BC AND
DISINTEGRATE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PERIODICALLY BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS SEEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE JUNEAU AIRPORT SEEING PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. MANY SHELTERED COMMUNITIES HAVE LIGHT WINDS WHICH
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW FOG LAYERS, THOUGH STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT IS
CURRENTLY REACHING NORTHERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS, PEAKING
NEAR POINT COUVERDEN WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS AND FLOWING WEST DOWN
ICY STRAIT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO FALL APART
AND OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MORNING, POPS WILL DIMINISH
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE IS STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN CLEAR, COLD, AND DRY ON
THANKSGIVING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
20S UP NORTH. A DISORGANIZED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST
TO SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING POPS FOR YAKUTAT AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
GULF COAST (PELICAN AND ELFIN COVE) AND ATTEMPTING TO BRING SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW WIND
SPEEDS WERE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL
REMAINING RAISED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT FROM PUSHING MORE INLAND
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
BY FRIDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SETUP TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK; THE FIRST BEING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB REACHING KODIAK BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE A GALE FORCE FRONT AND SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE
SECOND FEATURE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, AN EXTENSIVE STORM
FORCE LOW, WILL TAP INTO EQUATORIAL MOISTURE, WITH THE PARENT
500MB LOW BEGINNING TO STEER A WEAK-TO-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST BY SUNDAY AND ADDITIONAL FRONTS. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID-RANGE HAS BEEN BREAK DOWN OF
OUTFLOW AND TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS ALLOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE POINTS IN QUESTION
HAVE DRASTIC IMPLICATIONS TO PRECIP TYPE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE, WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
COMMUNITIES OUTSIDE OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO SEE HOW
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN BECOME AND REASSESSING TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHERE FREEZING LEVELS LOOK TO
RISE ABOVE 3,000FT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DENSE AND WET SNOW THIS
WEEKEND IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED, BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL BY MONDAY WHICH COULD EXACERBATE RIVER RESPONSE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGION. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
TO SUM UP, CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
WET/HEAVY SNOW THAT IMPACTS HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU.
AVIATION
/
GENERAL VFR TO UPPER END MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA
3000FT ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE THIS MORNING FROM DECAYING UPPER
WAVE IN THE N GULF IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAKENING LOW MOVING NE
OVER HAIDA GWAII.
NORTH PANHANDLE TAF SITES: ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD,
INCLUDING JUNEAU, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS
AOA 4000FT. GENERAL OVERLAND WINDS ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE TAF
SITES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED GUST UP
TO 20KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT SKAGWAY AND HAINES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED UP TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY 06Z
THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR LLWS CONCERNS, BUT ANTICIPATING WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND DEVELOPMENT FROM NE TO E WINDS ALOFT AND
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS NEAR GAP WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE TAKU INLET
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH PANHANDLE TAF SITES: A WEAKENING LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE DIXON ENTRANCE THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING
INTERMITTENT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 TO 2500FT NEAR
KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
KETCHIKAN AND WRANGELL TO HANG ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY LINGERS NE. BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS SITKA, AND PETERSBURG, WITH LOW-END VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AOA 4500FT GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR LLWS CONCERNS, BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 15 KTS AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES. SURFACE WINDS NEAR GAP WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE THE
STIKINE DELTA NEAR WRANGELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WIND SPEEDS DECREASING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGS SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS (22 TO 33 KTS) WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS (34 TO 40 KTS) TO THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
THURSDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FEET CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 11 TO 14 FT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.
OUTFLOW WINDS COMING OUT OF CHANNEL ENTRANCES MAY STAY RELATIVELY
ELEVATED UP TO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSIDE: OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHANNELS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS)
WITH AREAS OF STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27 KTS) OUT OF LYNN CANAL,
TAKU INLET, AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS. ISOLATED AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUCH AS POINT COUVERDEN HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF NEAR GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SUSTAINED BREEZES (11 TO 21 KTS)
WITH WEAKENING OUTFLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 3 TO
4 FT WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FT INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH AREAS
OF STRONG OUTFLOW AND CHANNEL ENTRANCES MAY STILL SEE HEIGHTS
AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TURN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
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