369
FXAK67 PAJK 261737
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
837 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IN SHORT, NO BIG CHANGES FROM INHERITED FORECAST. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TODAY FOR THE SOUTH. VFR FOR THE NORTH. STRONGEST
WINDS IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY.
OVERALL FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. SOME MINOR EDITS TO SPOTS HERE
AND THERE OVER MARINE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE OVERALL TREND AND
WEATHER STORY REMAINS WILL REMAIN THE SAME - IMPROVING WEATHER
TODAY.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DIMINISHES TODAY AS A WEAK
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
- OFFSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING
SKIES TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
- A DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION
IS THE NE GULF COAST (YAKUTAT, ELFIN COVE, AND PELICAN) WHERE
SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT AS THE
FORECAST STAYS LARGELY ON TRACK. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO BC AND
DISINTEGRATE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PERIODICALLY BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS SEEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE JUNEAU AIRPORT SEEING PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. MANY SHELTERED COMMUNITIES HAVE LIGHT WINDS WHICH
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW FOG LAYERS, THOUGH STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT IS
CURRENTLY REACHING NORTHERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS, PEAKING
NEAR POINT COUVERDEN WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS AND FLOWING WEST DOWN
ICY STRAIT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO FALL APART
AND OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MORNING, POPS WILL DIMINISH
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE IS STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN CLEAR, COLD, AND DRY ON
THANKSGIVING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
20S UP NORTH. A DISORGANIZED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST
TO SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING POPS FOR YAKUTAT AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
GULF COAST (PELICAN AND ELFIN COVE) AND ATTEMPTING TO BRING SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW WIND
SPEEDS WERE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL
REMAINING RAISED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT FROM PUSHING MORE INLAND
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
BY FRIDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SETUP TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK; THE FIRST BEING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB REACHING KODIAK BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE A GALE FORCE FRONT AND SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE
SECOND FEATURE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, AN EXTENSIVE STORM
FORCE LOW, WILL TAP INTO EQUATORIAL MOISTURE, WITH THE PARENT
500MB LOW BEGINNING TO STEER A WEAK-TO-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST BY SUNDAY AND ADDITIONAL FRONTS. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID-RANGE HAS BEEN BREAK DOWN OF
OUTFLOW AND TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS ALLOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE POINTS IN QUESTION
HAVE DRASTIC IMPLICATIONS TO PRECIP TYPE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE, WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
COMMUNITIES OUTSIDE OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO SEE HOW
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN BECOME AND REASSESSING TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHERE FREEZING LEVELS LOOK TO
RISE ABOVE 3,000FT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DENSE AND WET SNOW THIS
WEEKEND IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED, BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL BY MONDAY WHICH COULD EXACERBATE RIVER RESPONSE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGION. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
TO SUM UP, CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
WET/HEAVY SNOW THAT IMPACTS HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU.
AVIATION
THIS MORNING, HIGH-END MVFR TO VFR IS BEING REPORTED AROUND THE
AREA. WEBCAMS SUPPORT THIS. CIGS ARE AROUND 2500 TO 3000 IN THE
SOUTH WITH HIGHER CIGS IN THE NORTH.
NORTH PANHANDLE TAF SITES: ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD, VFR
IMPROVING TO HIGH-END VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR LASTING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVER LAND AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS HAINES AND SKAGWAY
WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS.
FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, SOME POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED. NEAR NEAR POINT COUVERDEN HAS BEEN HAVING GALE FORCE
WINDS. BUT THE FARTHER TO YOU GO AWAY FROM THIS AREA, WINDS
LIGHTEN UP. ALSO, NEAR TAKU INLET IS BLOWING AROUND 20 KTS WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS POTENTIALLY STRETCHING DOWN TO FIVE FINGER.
SOUTH PANHANDLE TAF SITES: A WEAKENING LOW IS FADING OUT AND
TRACKING INLAND TOWARDS CANADA. CIGS IN THE SOUTH ARE HIGH-END
MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE NEAR METLAKATLA WHERE CIGS
ARE DOWN TO AROUND 1800 TO 2000 FEET. AND SOME CANADIAN SITES ARE
REPORTING CIGS DOWN TO 700 FEET.
GOING FORWARD, THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BUT NEAR GAP-WIND PRONE AREAS, LIKE THE STIKINE DELTA NEAR
WRANGELL, WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. NO MAJOR LLWS
CONCERNS, BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 15 KTS AS THE LOW DISSIPATES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WIND SPEEDS DECREASING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGS SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS (22 TO 33 KTS) WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS (34 TO 40 KTS) TO THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
THURSDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FEET CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 11 TO 14 FT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.
OUTFLOW WINDS COMING OUT OF CHANNEL ENTRANCES MAY STAY RELATIVELY
ELEVATED UP TO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSIDE: OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHANNELS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS)
WITH AREAS OF STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27 KTS) OUT OF LYNN CANAL,
TAKU INLET, AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS. ISOLATED AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUCH AS POINT COUVERDEN HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF NEAR GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SUSTAINED BREEZES (11 TO 21 KTS)
WITH WEAKENING OUTFLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 3 TO
4 FT WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FT INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH AREAS
OF STRONG OUTFLOW AND CHANNEL ENTRANCES MAY STILL SEE HEIGHTS
AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TURN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...ZTK
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