748
FXAK67 PAJK 270620
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
920 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2025
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-COLD OUTFLOW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
-DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF (YAKUTAT).
-ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DRIER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT), COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND AT
TIMES CLEARER SKIES.
THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS TEMPORARILY BROKEN DOWN, AS
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN DIRECTING
SYSTEMS INTO THE PANHANDLE HAS LARGELY DISINTEGRATED. THIS HAS
ENABLED COLD AIR OUTFLOW WINDS TO ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS SE AK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CANADA. WHILE THE COLD AIR OUTFLOW
WINDS AREN'T ALL THAT STRONG IN MOST LOCATIONS, THEY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ONE LIKELY EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT, AS A LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN REDIRECTED OFF TO THE W SENDS A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING LATE ON THURSDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF SOME POPS FROM THIS FRONT
REACHING AS FAR AS ELFIN COVE AND PELICAN ON THURSDAY NIGHT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, THINK THAT THESE CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE, AS DRY
AIR FROM THE COLD AIR OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE PRECIP BANDS MORE
AGGRESSIVELY THAN IS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED BY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.
COLD AIR OUTFLOW WEAKENS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS
UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED EAST BY AN ADVANCING
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF, BRINGING A
GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND ALONG PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
INTO FRIDAY. STEEPER 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL PREVENT THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM REACHING AS FAR
INTO THE PANHANDLE, RATHER FUNNELING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION UP
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE FROM YAKUTAT WESTWARD. LARGELY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH DECREASING POPS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SYSTEM APPROACHING. THIS FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE OUTFLOW AND BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
PANHANDLE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS IN
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE COOLER AIR MASS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW STILL SOME SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MIXING MID DAY, BUT BY THE NEXT MORE
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IT APPEARS LIKE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE
DISRUPTED ALREADY.
LARGELY THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM MOVING
INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLE AND BEGIN TO
WARM THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MORE WARMER AIR FROM
THE SOUTH, BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE UP TO THE
40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THIS STRONGER SYSTEM, WITH UP TO 2
INCHES IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RATES OF BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.6 INCHES IN 6 HOURS EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF QPF, WITH THE ONLY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING FOR THE HIGHWAYS AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY
RISE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE DURING
THE DAY. THE HAINES HIGHWAY NEAR THE BORDER IS EXPECTED TO SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH IN 24 HOURS, WHILE THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY IS
EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE
SUNDAY SYSTEM, WITH THE SNOW BECOMING WETTER AND MORE DENSE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
3000 FT. WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY, THE COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF SNOW MIXING IN
SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE ASIDE FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BY AROUND
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE
SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. FOR THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER, ESPECIALLY PAKT, EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, AFTER WHICH FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PRECIPITOUSLY
IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE AVIATION FORECAST
PERIOD. AS FAR AS SFC WINDS ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA,
SPECIFICALLY AROUND THE PAGY & PAHN AREAS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT, GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 25 - 30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF TIMEFRAME. LLWS
VALUES REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WAVEHEIGHTS OF 6-10 FEET REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL OUT OF THE INNER
CHANNELS AND INTO THE GULF. WINDS BROADLY REMAIN BETWEEN MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE, THOUGH SOME FAVORED OUTFLOW CHANNELS COULD SEE
WINDIER CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL SEE WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS AS STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE
WINDS DEVELOP AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THURSDAY, RISING TO 10-14 FT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AND
CENTRAL GULF, AND 6-8 FT FOR MORE OUTER COASTAL WATERS CLOSER TO
THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER.
INSIDE WATERS: A WEAK COLD AIR OUTFLOW EVENT REMAINS UNDERWAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT FOR MANY OF
THE INNER CHANNELS, WHILE MORE OUTFLOW IMPACTED AREAS LIKE POINT
COUVERDEN AND TAKU INLET SEE 25-30 KT, AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE PANHANDLE, WITH WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 - 15 KT, POTENTIALLY LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS, FOR
THE INNER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ651-661-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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