501
FXAK67 PAJK 271431
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD OUTFLOW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
- DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF (YAKUTAT).
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE
HAS CONTINUED FRESH OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE CHANNELS OVERNIGHT,
WITH ISOLATED AREAS NEAR ROCKY ISLAND SEEING STRONGER SUSTAINED
WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. STRONGEST AREAS OF OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH
EVEN THE WEAKER AREAS OF OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER, MORE CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY.
THANKSGIVING DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND CLEAR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. AS THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY OUTFLOW THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST CLOUD COVER AND ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE, THOUGH CHANCE POPS AS
FAR AS ELFIN COVE AND PELICAN CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE SEEING HIGHS IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW
30S. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S, INCREASING AS
YOU MOVE SOUTH. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, THOUGH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LONG TERM
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF, BRINGING A GALE FORCE
FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND ALONG PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO
FRIDAY. STEEPER 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL PREVENT THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM REACHING AS FAR
INTO THE PANHANDLE, RATHER FUNNELING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION UP
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE FROM YAKUTAT WESTWARD. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, WITH DECREASING POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE
DISSIPATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING. THIS
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE OUTFLOW
AND BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE PANHANDLE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS IN WARMER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH. THE COOLER AIR MASS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SURFACE
AND THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW STILL
SOME SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
MIXING MID DAY, BUT BY THE NEXT MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IT APPEARS
LIKE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE DISRUPTED ALREADY.
LARGELY THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM
MOVING INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
BEGIN TO WARM THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MORE WARMER
AIR FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
UP TO THE 40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. NOT MANY CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THIS STRONGER SYSTEM,
WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED ALONG THE NE GULF COAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES OF BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.6 INCHES IN 6 HOURS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF QPF,
WITH THE ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING FOR THE HIGHWAYS AS SNOW
LEVELS RAPIDLY RISE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S
ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY. THE HAINES HIGHWAY NEAR THE BORDER IS
EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH IN 24 HOURS, WHILE THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, WITH THE SNOW BECOMING WETTER AND MORE
DENSE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
RISE ABOVE 3000 FT. WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY, THE COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF SNOW MIXING
IN SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE ASIDE FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BY AROUND
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE
SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE UNDER SKC
CONDITIONS, OUTSIDERS BEING AN ISOLATED MARINE LAYER OVER INTERIOR
FREDERICK SOUND KEEPING MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500FT NEAR PETERSBURG.
FURTHER SOUTH, KETCHIKAN IS GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM AN
OVERNIGHT IFR DECK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PANHANDLE WIDE
PREVAILING BY 22Z THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SKC CONDITIONS. CLOUD DECK
BUILDS BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 02Z WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE AOA 5000FT AND YAKUTAT
DROPPING INTO LOW- END VFR TO UPPER- END MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BY 10Z FRIDAY. GENERAL OVERLAND WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TAF
SITES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12KTS OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED
GUST UP TO 20KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT SKAGWAY AND HAINES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED UP TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS. NO MAJOR VISIBILITY OR LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT ANTICIPATING INCREASED WINDS NEAR GAP WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE
TAKU INLET AND STIKINE DELTA NEAR WRANGELL UP TO 25KTS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: GULF WINDS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES (4 TO 16 KTS) IN SHELTERED AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND FRESH OUTFLOW WINDS (17 TO 21 KTS) COMING OUT OF CHANNEL
ENTRANCES. THE CENTRAL GULF HAS BEEN SEEING FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT, EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY IN THE CENTRAL GULF UP TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST, WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO EASTERLY GALE FORCE
SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE SUCKLING. OUTFLOW
WINDS PRIMARILY COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 FT AT A PERIOD OF
10 TO 12 SECONDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND STEADILY
DECREASING THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSIDE: NORTHERLY FRESH OUTFLOW WINDS (17 TO 21 KTS) CONTINUE TO
BLOW THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH ISOLATED AREAS NEAR POINT COUVERDEN AND OUT OF TAKU INLET
SEEING 25 TO 30 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGEST AREAS
REACHING A MODERATE BREEZE BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUTFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-644-651-662>664-671.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
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