669
FXAK67 PAJK 280640
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2025
UPDATE...FOR THE 06Z TAF PRODUCT
THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION
FRONTAL BAND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF IS SPREADING SNOW OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX INTO THE THE YAKUTAT AREA, HAS BEGUN SNOW THERE.
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH
FLURRIES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE NOT MANY OTHER CHANGES TO
THE AVIATION SECTION THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 356 PM THU 27 NOV
SYNOPSIS...
KEY POINTS:
- NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.
- A FRONT MOVES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO YAKUTAT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF.
SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED COOL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH DUE TO NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING. BECAUSE OF
THIS OUTFLOW, FORECASTED WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (25 TO 30 KTS) HAVE
CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CROSS SOUND, NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, AND ALONG STEPHENS PASSAGE.
NORTHERLY WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND NEAR WHITE PASS WILL REMAIN STRONGER
INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
TONIGHT, A FRONT MOVES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR YAKUTAT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER YAKUTAT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION OVER YAKUTAT IS HIGHLY
LIKELY TO START AS SNOW TONIGHT TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX STAYS OVER THE AREA LONGER IF
EASTERLY WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER.
ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER OTHER
AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE, TIMES OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THIS FRONT DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS GREATLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE AHEAD OF A
LARGER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH LARGELY FELL
APART AS IT TRIED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, DRIER WEATHER
LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BARRING A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DRIER WEATHER IS BROUGHT TO A HALT AS A
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND OVERRUNNING SE AK ON SUNDAY.
IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST JUST HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN ITS DISTANCE
FROM THE PARENT LOW. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN IN A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAJECTORY FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WHILE THE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, SNOW
MELT COOLING COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW FOR THEIR HIGHWAYS RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR LOOKS TO START OUT AS
SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX THEN RAIN. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE FORCED A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING, RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE
RESULTED IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
KLONDIKE, WHERE SNOW MAY LINGER UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES OF BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.6 INCHES IN 6
HOURS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF QPF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LULL ON TUESDAY, AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY REBUILDS. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AS SE AK FINDS ITSELF ON THE NE FLANK OF A
BUILDING TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE BERING AND THE WESTERN GULF,
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE PARTICULAR DETAILS ESPECIALLY AS THE
LOW TRIES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THIS SPREAD.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH TO MID CLOUDS AOA 5KFT.
HOWEVER, FOR YAKUTAT, VFR VIS AND CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10KTS
FOR THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WINDS THIS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR SKAGWAY, DECREASING
TONIGHT. ASIDE FOR YAKUTAT, NO MAJOR VIS ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD. LLWS
LOOKS TO DEVELOP FOR YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS 2KT INCREASING
TO AROUND 30KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: GULF WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY, AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH
GALES OUT OF THE SE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS,
WITH 15-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF SATURDAY. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, AND BY SUNDAY WINDS 40 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE OMMANEY. WAVEHEIGHTS OF 10-14 FT FRIDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 8 FT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE BACK
TO 10-14 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE WATERS: COLD AIR OUTFLOW DIMINISHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE PANHANDLE, WITH WINDS DROPPING TO 5 - 15 KT.
WAVEHEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH TO 2-3 FT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP ONCE MORE SUNDAY AS A GALE FORCE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
PANHANDLE, REACHING 20-30 KT FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, ALONGSIDE
ELEVATED WAVEHEIGHTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-644-651-663-664-671.
UPDATE...BEZENEK
SHORT TERM...EAB/LC
LONG TERM...GFS/SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GFS
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