595
FXAK67 PAJK 281549
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
649 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAK NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY.
- A FRONT MOVING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF IS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO YAKUTAT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF.
SHORT TERM
MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. REMAINING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED, WITH A MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES FEELING LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES (4 TO 10 KTS) PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND TAKU
INLET ARE HOLDING ONTO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS MOVED INTO YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED UP
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TRANSITIONING
THE THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF FRIDAY. ONLY AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, TRICKLING OUT BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY, THOUGH SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY. POPS WERE FURTHER REDUCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING, DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THIS FRONT.
850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, THOUGH ARE INDICATING WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS CREATED A COLD POOL OF NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE OF THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY,
INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONLY A SMALL DAYTIME RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS AROUND THE HIGH 30S ARE PROBABLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND STAYING AROUND THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE THE
OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES, AS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OFFSHORE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE INFLUENTIAL WITH OUTFLOW WEAKENING. AS
SKIES CLEAR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, RADIATIVE COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH LARGELY FELL
APART AS IT TRIED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, DRIER WEATHER
LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BARRING A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DRIER WEATHER IS BROUGHT TO A HALT AS A
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND OVERRUNNING SE AK ON SUNDAY.
IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST JUST HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN ITS DISTANCE
FROM THE PARENT LOW. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN IN A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAJECTORY FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WHILE THE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, SNOW
MELT COOLING COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW FOR THEIR HIGHWAYS RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR LOOKS TO START OUT AS
SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX THEN RAIN. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA BUT IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE FORCED A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING, RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE
RESULTED IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
KLONDIKE, WHERE SNOW MAY LINGER UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES OF BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.6 INCHES IN 6
HOURS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF QPF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LULL ON TUESDAY, AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY REBUILDS. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AS SE AK FINDS ITSELF ON THE NE FLANK OF A
BUILDING TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE BERING AND THE WESTERN GULF,
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE PARTICULAR DETAILS ESPECIALLY AS THE
LOW TRIES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THIS SPREAD.
AVIATION
RATHER QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE NE GULF COAST WHERE A FRONT IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING ENCOUNTERED. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NE GULF
COAST WILL BE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION STAYS FOR THE MOST PART WITH
CEILINGS AND VIS AROUND VFR TO MVFR. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 1700 FT. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AS OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LOW WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
(CROSS SOUND, AND TAKU INLET) SHOWING ANYTHING GREATER THEN 15 KT.
ONLY CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS AROUND YAKUTAT WHERE SE
WINDS OF 30 KT AT AROUND 2000 AGL COULD BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A STRONG FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A SWATH OF STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING. THE FAR
NORTHERN COAST FROM ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING WILL SEE
SOUTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HOLDING ONTO 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GULF WINDS WILL LARGELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 40 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE OMMANEY GOING INTO SUNDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT AT A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 8 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY TO EVENTUALLY RETURN TO 10 TO 15 FT AT
A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SSW 5 FT SWELL WILL
ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO 5 FT
THROUGH SATURDAY. 10 FT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL OVERTAKE THE
GULF FOLLOWING THE STRONG FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE: OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. CROSS SOUND, TAKU INLET, AND ISOLATED AREAS OF
ICY STRAIT HAVE HELD ONTO AROUND 20 KTS OF WIND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TURN AND WEAKEN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHTER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER GALE FORCE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 20
TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 4 TO 6 FT WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-644-651-663-664-671.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...GFS/SF
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...ZTK
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