069
FXAK67 PAJK 290011
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
- WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A GALE FORCE SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAKENING FRONT STALLED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF CONTINUES TO
BRING RAIN FOR YAKUTAT WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PANHANDLE. RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVER YAKUTAT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS, AN OUTSIDE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXISTS.
THE WEEKEND KICKS OFF WITH DRY WEATHER, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO
REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR MOST COMMUNITIES WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT. A CHANGE IS IN STORE HOWEVER, AS A RIDGE
WHICH HAD BUILT OVER THE GULF IS DISPLACED EAST, OPENING THE PATH
FOR A GALE FORCE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE PANHANDLE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING, AND POP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST.
IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST JUST HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS DISTANCE
FROM THE PARENT LOW, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OUT OVER THE NW GULF.
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN IN A SIGNIFICANT SOUTH TO NORTH TRAJECTORY
COMPONENT FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER CONDITIONS
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL HAS
DIMINISHED, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY ON SUNDAY, AS SNOW
MELT COOLING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
AMELIORATE WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS, WITH THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY SET TO RECEIVE 5 - 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THE HAINES HIGHWAY WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS DUE TO MOISTURE
SHADOWING. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR LOOKS TO
START OUT INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS AS SNOW
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX THEN RAIN. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST. BY SUNDAY EVENING, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HAVE FORCED A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR SEA LEVEL BARRING HAINES AND SKAGWAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A TRANSITION TO
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE KLONDIKE, WHERE SNOW MAY LINGER
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A RESPECTABLE QPF
PRODUCER, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES OF BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.6 INCHES
IN 6 HOURS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF
QPF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LULL ON TUESDAY, AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY REBUILDS. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AS SE AK FINDS ITSELF ON THE NE FLANK OF A
BUILDING TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE BERING AND THE WESTERN GULF, AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE PARTICULAR DETAILS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
TRIES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOWER END DUE TO THIS SPREAD.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH CLOSELY BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE AREA TRANSITIONED TO RAIN BY MONDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
THE HIGHWAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM SUNDAY WILL HAVE PASSED, WITH
MUCH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY, DIMINISHING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW IS
ALONG THE HIGHWAYS, WITH MORE OF A MIX ON THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND
WET, DENSE SNOW ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY MONDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH MONDAY. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
SHOW CONFIDENCE ON A LOW LEVEL RIDGE FORMING OVER THE PANHANDLE,
AS WELL AS 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDING OVER THE GULF AGAIN AFTER THE
PRIOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH BY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR
A BRIEF LULL ON TUESDAY. THIS HOWEVER WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, AS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW TO REMAIN MOVING INTO THE NE GULF
COAST AND KEEPING POPS HIGHER ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL STILL SEE SOME CLOUD COVER EVEN WITH THE RIDGING SETTING UP,
THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 40% MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE GULF COAST
AND YAKUTAT AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, BRINGING US CLOSE
TO SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES
C, AND SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ALONGSIDE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WET BULBS AT THE SURFACE, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW MIXING IN ONLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTING RAIN WILL BE THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING JUST AROUND 3000 FT ALLOWING FOR
WETTER SNOW TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE NE GULF COASTLINE WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS FOR THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
CONTINUED, MAINLY, VFR CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CEILINGS AND HIGH VISIBILITIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR YAKUTAT WHERE A FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS AOB 2500 FT. VISIBILITIES NEAR
YAKUTAT WILL DECREASE AT TIMES, BUT IS LIKELY TO STAY AOA 5 SM.
THESE LOWERED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO SEE CEILINGS LIFT. AT THAT TIME DOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS EVEN CALLS
FOR SKIES TO CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING GETTING RID OF THE LINGERING
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK. AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT BELOW 5
KTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WELL INTO TOMORROW BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
MARINE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HOLDING ONTO 15 TO 25 KT WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GULF WINDS WILL LARGELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE OMMANEY GOING INTO SUNDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND, DECREASING BY 5 TO 8 FT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY TO EVENTUALLY
RETURN TO 10 TO 15 FT AT A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SSW 5 FT SWELL WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY. 10 FT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
WILL OVERTAKE THE GULF FOLLOWING THE STRONG FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE WATERS: OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, BARRING
HOLDOUTS IN CROSS SOUND, TAKU INLET, AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN
WHICH HAVE HELD ONTO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS OF WIND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHTER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER GALE FORCE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 20
TO 30 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 4 TO 6 FT WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES AROUND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS/GFS
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GFS
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