854
FXAK67 PAJK 300605
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
905 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2025
UPDATE
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. PRECIPITATION MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 314 PM 29 NOV
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
A GALE FORCE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS SUNDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPS FAILED TO CLIMB TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO STARTING OFF THE FORECAST COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WITH THE CLOUD DECK MOVING IN, TEMPS
WON'T DROP ALL TOO MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AS A GALE
FORCE FRONT APPROACHES, PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WITH RAIN FOR THE COMMUNIZES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW FURTHER INLAND.
THE GALE FORCE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASED WINDS TO INLAND AREAS OF 15
TO 20 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ALONGSIDE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SURFACE
WARMING WILL BEGIN FROM THE OUTER COASTLINE AND MOVING INWARDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING, CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX BECOMING RAIN ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THE OUTER COASTLINE WILL START OFF AS RAIN DUE TO
THE WARMER CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED, HOWEVER AREAS
FURTHER FROM THE GULF COAST WILL SEE SOME COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING SOON BEING OVERRUN BY THE WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FROM SW TO NE. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE THE RAIN AS SOON AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS, WHILE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARDS WILL SEE A MIX IN THE MORNING BECOMING
RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND SNOW LEVELS
RISE.
HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL SEE WET SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEING EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
RESTRICTS SNOW ACCUMULATION AND BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN. THE
HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS WILL SEE SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
BECOMING A MIX OVERNIGHT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE KLONDIKE HOLDING ONTO HIGHER SNOW CHANCES A BIT
LONGER THAN THE HAINES HIGHWAY. THE HAINES HIGHWAY IS EXPECTING A
BIT LESS QPF DURING THIS EVENT, AND WILL ONLY SEE AROUND 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN 24 HOURS. THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
HOWEVER WILL SEE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, SEEING A
RATHER CONSISTENT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES EVERY 3 HOURS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, RESULTING IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEING SENT OUT FOR 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WITHIN THIS
LONGER TIMEFRAME. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN 24 HOURS, WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES FOR YAKUTAT AND THE NE OUTER COASTLINE. PARTS OF ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MORNING, BUT THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MIDDAY TO THE LOW 40S AND HIGHER TW
VALUES WILL LESSEN THE ACCUMULATION EVEN IF THE SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
LASTS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF RATHER WET AS ONSHORE
FLOW LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FROM ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL
BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
ONLY AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WITH THIS WILL BE
THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. HOWEVER EVEN THERE A
TRANSITION TO A SLUSHY MIX AND THEN COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE PANHANDLE
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AS THE RIDGING WILL STILL SUPPORT ONSHORE
MOIST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THAT
PERIOD SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO SINKING AIR ALOFT.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE GULF COAST
AND YAKUTAT AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES
C, AND SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FT ALONGSIDE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WET BULBS AT THE SURFACE, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW MIXING IN ONLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTING RAIN WILL BE THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING JUST AROUND 3000 FT ALLOWING FOR
WETTER SNOW TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AS OF THIS FORECAST. OVERALL THE NE GULF COASTLINE WILL SEE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE.
LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR AND YUKON, DRIVING SNOW
LEVELS DOWNWARD GRADUALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A CLOUD
DECK HAS STARTED TO RETURN OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT,
ARRIVING EARLY SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE BECOMING OVERCAST AND LOWERING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL FIRST IMPACT COASTAL AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AS
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE,
LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP FLYING CONDITIONS INTO
PREVAILING MVFR, WITH TIMES OF IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE RAIN, WITH AREAS OF SNOW OR WINTRY MIX FROM THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAINES AND SKAGWAY ARE LIKELY TO
SEE SNOW CONTINUING INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR TIMES OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AOB 3SM, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT WITH
LLWS AROUND 2000 FT RETURNING. LLWS WILL FIRST RETURN NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BEFORE SPREADING INLAND AFFECTING ALMOST ALL OF THE
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE THE RETURN OF WIND SHEAR
SUNDAY MORNING SPREADING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR GALES TO GALE FORCE
(30 TO 40 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. EXPECTING
EASTERLY STRONG GALES (41 TO 47 KT) AND GUSTS TO STORM FORCE (48
TO 54 KT) OFF THE NE GULF COAST, PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE ST. ELIAS
TO ICY CAPE, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS WINDS IN THE GULF
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN AROUND A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MONDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
THE WINDS IN THE MORE CENTRAL GULF. SEAS BUILDING FROM 6 TO 10 FT
TONIGHT TO 15 TO 20 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY.
INNER CHANNELS: PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
LAST INTO TONIGHT, SLOWLY INCREASING BY THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. WINDS ACROSS THE CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO A SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE (17 TO 27 KT) AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW. CLARENCE STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL
SEE INCREASES OF A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE (25 TO 31 KT) AS THE
FRONT PASSES TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. LARGELY A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TO A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. SEAS WILL SEE
INCREASES TO ABOVE 8 FT NEAR THE OCEAN ENTRANCES, AND TO BETWEEN 3-5
FT SEAS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS TOMORROW NIGHT,
SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-034-036-053-641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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