970
FXAK67 PAJK 301414
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
514 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS SUNDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ INCOMING FRONT FOR SUNDAY IS
ALREADY SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM
KAKE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FROM JUST
NORTH OF ANGOON TO NEAR PELICAN AND ELFIN COVE WITH LIGHT SNOW
OBSERVED AT HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT SO FAR WITH THE PRECIP RATES BEING RATHER LIGHT. PRECIP
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SO ARE
TEMPERATURES. MANY SEA LEVEL AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SNOWING ARE
VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW AND HOW MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION VARIOUS AREAS RECEIVE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THESE AREAS WARM AND SWITCH PTYPE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS
AROUND ICY STRAIT AND JUNEAU AND EVEN HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL
LIKELY BE STARTING TO CHANGE TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY
(MENDENHALL VALLEY AND CHILKAT VALLEY MAY WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO COOLER TEMPS THERE) SO WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
WILL STAY COLDER LONGER HOWEVER SO SNOW WILL BE A PTYPE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A MIX WITH RAIN EVEN AS HIGH
AS PASS LEVEL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
4 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT). ALL OTHER LOW ELEVATION AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE MAINLY SEEING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
UPWARDS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH THE INCOMING FRONT.
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL START INCREASING LATER THIS
MORNING AND THE INNER CHANNELS WILL LIKELY START SEEING GUSTIER
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY OFFSHORE, BUT GUSTS
TO 30 OR 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE WINDS WERE INCREASED TO MIN STORM FORCE FOR MIDDAY
TODAY.
LONG TERM
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF RATHER WET AS ONSHORE
FLOW LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FROM ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL
BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
ONLY AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WITH THIS WILL BE
THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. HOWEVER EVEN THERE A
TRANSITION TO A SLUSHY MIX AND THEN COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE PANHANDLE
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AS THE RIDGING WILL STILL SUPPORT ONSHORE
MOIST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THAT
PERIOD SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO SINKING AIR ALOFT.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE GULF COAST
AND YAKUTAT AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES
C, AND SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FT ALONGSIDE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WET BULBS AT THE SURFACE, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW MIXING IN ONLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTING RAIN WILL BE THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING JUST AROUND 3000 FT ALLOWING FOR
WETTER SNOW TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AS OF THIS FORECAST. OVERALL THE NE GULF COASTLINE WILL SEE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE.
LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR AND YUKON, DRIVING SNOW
LEVELS DOWNWARD GRADUALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.
AVIATION
AS OF 5AM LOCAL TIME, A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, EXPANDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH RATES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, WITH AREAS OF SNOW OR WINTRY MIX FROM THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAINES AND SKAGWAY
ARE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR TIMES OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR 3SM, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT
WITH LLWS AROUND 2000 FT RETURNING. LLWS WILL FIRST RETURN NEAR
THE NORTHEAST COAST BEFORE SPREADING INLAND AFFECTING ALMOST ALL
OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
GULF WATERS: INCOMING FRONT WILL BE SPREADING SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WERE INCREASED TO MIN STORM FORCE FOR MIDDAY
TODAY, BUT THAT WAS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE. THE HIGHER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SW
AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE REACHING 9 FT THIS MORNING AS A COMBINATION
OF WIND WAVE AND A 5 FT S SWELL (PERIOD 7 SEC). THE INCREASED
WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WITH A MAX
NEAR 20 FT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AROUND MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 13 FT BY EARLY MONDAY
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE IN PART TO A 8 FT SW
SWELL ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SW.
INSIDE WATERS: INCREASING S AND E WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF COMES INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 25 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT POINT EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO SWITCH TO A MORE S
AND W DIRECTION AS OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE INTO MONDAY.
SEAS MAINLY DOMINATED BY WIND WAVE UP TO 6 FT, BUT AREAS NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES OPEN TO THE SW WILL SEE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 8 TO
10 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGHER SW SWELL MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AKST
MONDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-662>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031>036-053-641-661.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page